{ "ticker": { "uuid": "784c87d7-54d9-443a-bcce-d1eda6f6f2ad", "symbol": "ZDJ", "name": "BMO Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to CAD Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.729, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.587, "architecture_energy": 69.661, "architecture_maturity": 47.499, "architecture_confidence": 80.788, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 61.7, "upward_expansion": 85.3, "deceleration": 63.75, "rotation_down": 25.27, "downward_expansion": 11.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.321999, 78.848476, 77.447142, 76.149258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.989998, "trend_reference": 74.956469, "distance_from_trend": 0.080494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.029717, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245431, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.826449, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070651, "excess_performance": -0.04977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080494, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064237, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045453, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.200847, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47200, "relative_activity": 1.387419, "balance": 2.200847, "dry_up": 1.54174, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017858, "annualized_volatility": 0.118865, "from_high_reference": -0.012558, "from_low_reference": 0.213153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.956469, "fair_value_reference": 65.029717, "structural_low": 67.839996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.009321, "positive_rate": 0.605263, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": -0.0056, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.049571, "worst_return": -0.104908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004118, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021803, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.088481, "worst_return": -0.086408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.052255, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023719, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.12906, "worst_return": -0.130345, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.93, "volume": 23200, "typical_volume": 31435.0, "trend": 74.557844, "fair_value": 64.689253, "relative_strength": -3.159646, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.784431, "energy": 82.697605, "activity_lines": [ 78.511131, 78.037154, 76.513027, 75.471081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.830002, "volume": 107600, "typical_volume": 33505.0, "trend": 74.750403, "fair_value": 64.853771, "relative_strength": -1.468028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.649176, "energy": 62.689183, "activity_lines": [ 78.589999, 78.273705, 76.897676, 75.746704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.989998, "volume": 47200, "typical_volume": 34020.0, "trend": 74.956469, "fair_value": 65.029717, "relative_strength": -1.826449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.58724, "energy": 69.661287, "activity_lines": [ 79.321999, 78.848476, 77.447142, 76.149258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }