{ "ticker": { "uuid": "784d5b56-0e4d-453b-810b-8bab950c0ec5", "symbol": "600128", "name": "Soho Holly Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.38, "architecture_energy": 62.108, "architecture_maturity": 88.136, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.26, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 53.52, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.746, 7.820519, 8.437925, 9.073778 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.97, "trend_reference": 9.894975, "distance_from_trend": -0.194541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.022469, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.862328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328559, "excess_performance": -0.285356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100969, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328559, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.310238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21792507, "relative_activity": 1.173063, "balance": 0.310238, "dry_up": 1.191076, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074436, "annualized_volatility": 0.273543, "from_high_reference": -0.391603, "from_low_reference": 0.114685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.894975, "fair_value_reference": 9.022469, "structural_low": 7.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014354, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.001718, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.14446, "worst_return": -0.118952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015236, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033432, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.427457, "worst_return": -0.084151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.051572, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026218, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.50234, "worst_return": -0.086195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 7.810784, 8.126702, 8.926295, 9.541257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.26, "volume": 23379596, "typical_volume": 19144420.2, "trend": 10.099975, "fair_value": 9.026421, "relative_strength": -27.502703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.918387, "energy": 72.148833, "activity_lines": [ 7.610667, 7.907057, 8.703442, 9.35027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.84, "volume": 17645176, "typical_volume": 18669113.85, "trend": 9.995642, "fair_value": 9.025054, "relative_strength": -21.523603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.012419, "energy": 65.357579, "activity_lines": [ 7.659333, 7.837987, 8.556064, 9.204465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.97, "volume": 21792507, "typical_volume": 18577434.95, "trend": 9.894975, "fair_value": 9.022469, "relative_strength": -21.862328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.379937, "energy": 62.107564, "activity_lines": [ 7.746, 7.820519, 8.437925, 9.073778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }