{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78567b5c-ee93-4da9-8365-54f7fad6aa91", "symbol": "4972", "name": "Tons Lightology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.959, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.813, "architecture_energy": 48.146, "architecture_maturity": 6.558, "architecture_confidence": 82.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.43, "rotation_up": 12.46, "upward_expansion": 8.31, "deceleration": 41.86, "rotation_down": 62.18, "downward_expansion": 81.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.54, 16.692727, 16.711905, 16.869463 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.6, "trend_reference": 17.148333, "distance_from_trend": -0.031976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.347229, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257179, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.148866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077778, "excess_performance": -0.51915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257179, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036415, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.567987, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51220, "relative_activity": 0.274762, "balance": 3.567987, "dry_up": 0.424025, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031511, "annualized_volatility": 0.102411, "from_high_reference": -0.15736, "from_low_reference": 0.027864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.148333, "fair_value_reference": 22.347229, "structural_low": 16.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.004616, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.013099, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.102396, "worst_return": -0.101761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008175, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05896, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.037838, "worst_return": -0.168646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021545, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.121199, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.073409, "worst_return": -0.28586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-31.265342, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.902486, "energy": 35.021627, "activity_lines": [ 16.663333, 16.786364, 16.769524, 16.956022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.5, "volume": 76198, "typical_volume": 189360.15, "trend": 17.198334, "fair_value": 22.412162, "relative_strength": -32.067564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.787228, "energy": 52.35135, "activity_lines": [ 16.553333, 16.730909, 16.732857, 16.908065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.6, "volume": 51220, "typical_volume": 186416.0, "trend": 17.148333, "fair_value": 22.347229, "relative_strength": -33.148866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.813485, "energy": 48.1459, "activity_lines": [ 16.54, 16.692727, 16.711905, 16.869463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }