{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78583cb8-d5af-4dfe-94e1-2a8abbbd133f", "symbol": "LUMN", "name": "Lumen Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 89.544, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -49.685, "architecture_energy": 62.965, "architecture_maturity": 19.685, "architecture_confidence": 77.421, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.52, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 26.94, "deceleration": 50.3, "rotation_down": 64.77, "downward_expansion": 47.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.266663, 140.938178, 147.91614, 144.811374 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 110.0, "trend_reference": 141.218999, "distance_from_trend": -0.221068, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.996602, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.536775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018047, "excess_performance": 0.072714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.221068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.595143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.35014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 714, "relative_activity": 1.309491, "balance": 1.35014, "dry_up": 0.327373, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098322, "annualized_volatility": 0.749342, "from_high_reference": -0.502262, "from_low_reference": 0.583189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.218999, "fair_value_reference": 89.996602, "structural_low": 108.050003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03182, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.003449, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.09872, "worst_return": -0.252609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.095938, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.139545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.351226, "worst_return": -0.34811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069841, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.051225, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.018047, "worst_return": -0.722705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068254, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 4.01625, "worst_return": -0.876618, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.072325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086022, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.503148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125405, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.282895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.25, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 936.35, "trend": 47.760334, "fair_value": 190.819249, "relative_strength": -68.077794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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141.845333, "fair_value": 87.24609, "relative_strength": 7.834165, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.804264, "energy": 32.921456, "activity_lines": [ 147.453329, 154.698178, 151.166522, 146.021827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 146.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 546.15, "trend": 141.792, "fair_value": 87.976218, "relative_strength": 6.892524, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.830038, "energy": 28.39312, "activity_lines": [ 146.039994, 152.850905, 151.410807, 146.315676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 146.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 545.6, "trend": 142.038999, "fair_value": 88.721538, "relative_strength": 6.495864, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.144709, "energy": 20.549788, "activity_lines": [ 146.399994, 150.996359, 151.536045, 146.612966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 146.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 514.1, "trend": 142.285666, "fair_value": 89.474102, "relative_strength": 4.860199, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.302444, "energy": 16.979792, "activity_lines": [ 146.399994, 149.13454, 151.52533, 146.89432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.0, "volume": 714, "typical_volume": 545.25, "trend": 141.218999, "fair_value": 89.996602, "relative_strength": -21.536775, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.684965, "energy": 62.965095, "activity_lines": [ 134.266663, 140.938178, 147.91614, 144.811374 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }