{ "ticker": { "uuid": "785b549b-6aa8-4a3f-8b50-62c5a91bd90f", "symbol": "4191", "name": "Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.853, "architecture_energy": 40.325, "architecture_maturity": 21.093, "architecture_confidence": 70.719, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.74, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 14.52, "deceleration": 46.74, "rotation_down": 63.38, "downward_expansion": 73.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.946667, 42.086909, 42.341619, 42.277247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.900002, "trend_reference": 42.612667, "distance_from_trend": -0.063659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.701014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.076357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125384, "excess_performance": -0.093554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020163, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106496, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125384, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.804196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1111302, "relative_activity": 0.753038, "balance": 0.804196, "dry_up": 1.076497, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074108, "annualized_volatility": 0.370421, "from_high_reference": -0.251088, "from_low_reference": 0.200361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.612667, "fair_value_reference": 34.701014, "structural_low": 33.240002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.020239, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.220856, "worst_return": -0.120401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012961, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.164249, "worst_return": -0.181672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05627, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.015207, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.503953, "worst_return": -0.152941, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034436, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029362, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152893, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191819, 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43.304667, "fair_value": 34.507584, "relative_strength": 5.831434, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.964634, "energy": 23.582616, "activity_lines": [ 43.849333, 43.364, 42.987143, 42.813247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.119999, "volume": 2911085, "typical_volume": 1580498.05, "trend": 43.180667, "fair_value": 34.571706, "relative_strength": -2.614095, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.993826, "energy": 13.064178, "activity_lines": [ 42.82, 43.066545, 42.861238, 42.672301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.040001, "volume": 747262, "typical_volume": 1495619.8, "trend": 42.882667, "fair_value": 34.636377, "relative_strength": -3.440752, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.666899, "energy": 26.487543, "activity_lines": [ 41.736, 42.588364, 42.608952, 42.469677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.900002, "volume": 1111302, "typical_volume": 1475759.1, "trend": 42.612667, "fair_value": 34.701014, "relative_strength": -6.076357, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.852717, "energy": 40.324564, "activity_lines": [ 40.946667, 42.086909, 42.341619, 42.277247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }