{ "ticker": { "uuid": "786593e8-5ed8-4998-aec8-86d0936fb291", "symbol": "8931", "name": "Ta-Yuan Cogeneration Company Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.523, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.49, "architecture_energy": 14.585, "architecture_maturity": 13.87, "architecture_confidence": 61.62, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.96, "rotation_up": 25.4, "upward_expansion": 20.76, "deceleration": 34.64, "rotation_down": 39.51, "downward_expansion": 59.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.775609, 40.794951, 40.748705, 41.114504 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.700001, "trend_reference": 41.771864, "distance_from_trend": -0.02566, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.762055, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090748, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.053842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053603, "excess_performance": -0.494975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03146, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090748, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026165, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064281, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053603, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186667, "relative_activity": 0.58699, "balance": 1.356034, "dry_up": 0.60848, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044913, "annualized_volatility": 0.15246, "from_high_reference": -0.225203, "from_low_reference": 0.036861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.771864, "fair_value_reference": 44.762055, "structural_low": 39.253079, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007166, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.208081, "worst_return": -0.12963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052791, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005044, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.13708, "worst_return": -0.030207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046653, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.000489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159133, "worst_return": -0.008222, "sufficient": true }, 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-27.592772, "energy": 15.431671, "activity_lines": [ 41.045766, 40.940228, 41.000411, 41.58081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.92654, "volume": 405155, "typical_volume": 347901.8, "trend": 42.192251, "fair_value": 44.978175, "relative_strength": -36.761276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.085319, "energy": 26.380215, "activity_lines": [ 40.71545, 40.782796, 40.838918, 41.423048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.503792, "volume": 304679, "typical_volume": 339367.7, "trend": 42.078405, "fair_value": 44.915305, "relative_strength": -36.323879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.597209, "energy": 22.232458, "activity_lines": [ 40.654518, 40.732068, 40.753934, 41.314116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.400002, "volume": 143481, "typical_volume": 317572.3, "trend": 41.988018, "fair_value": 44.862168, "relative_strength": -33.104619, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.454463, "energy": 9.72349, "activity_lines": [ 40.898737, 40.844287, 40.780646, 41.270348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.75, "volume": 139177, "typical_volume": 314524.3, "trend": 41.877567, "fair_value": 44.799736, "relative_strength": -34.759022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.629671, "energy": 13.69016, "activity_lines": [ 40.844092, 40.824654, 40.760885, 41.190476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 186667, "typical_volume": 318007.35, "trend": 41.771864, "fair_value": 44.762055, "relative_strength": -36.053842, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.49025, "energy": 14.584564, "activity_lines": [ 40.775609, 40.794951, 40.748705, 41.114504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }