{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7869fc7b-26e6-4eca-91b4-ab80739d3003", "symbol": "002629", "name": "Zhejiang Renzhi Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.423, "architecture_energy": 53.734, "architecture_maturity": 51.335, "architecture_confidence": 95.053, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 24.42, "upward_expansion": 8.95, "deceleration": 56.73, "rotation_down": 52.18, "downward_expansion": 79.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.372, 4.44, 5.022524, 5.409591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.61, "trend_reference": 5.824667, "distance_from_trend": -0.208538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.696218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.516616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250407, "excess_performance": -0.257806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.525479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.484876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66140200, "relative_activity": 0.757481, "balance": 0.484876, "dry_up": 0.833893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13716, "annualized_volatility": 0.514482, "from_high_reference": -0.553727, "from_low_reference": 0.206806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.824667, "fair_value_reference": 4.696218, "structural_low": 3.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010965, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.008555, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.224719, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020619, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.100764, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.843931, "worst_return": -0.296748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141745, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.220924, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.768786, "worst_return": -0.441935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.56231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251309, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.302168, "energy": 80.594154, "activity_lines": [ 4.577333, 4.944364, 5.591095, 5.857634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.22, "volume": 74225700, "typical_volume": 115156432.3, "trend": 6.091667, "fair_value": 4.686282, "relative_strength": -39.196299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.23723, "energy": 72.742069, "activity_lines": [ 4.441333, 4.724182, 5.423095, 5.729505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.11, "volume": 90931450, "typical_volume": 100603617.55, "trend": 5.988667, "fair_value": 4.688269, "relative_strength": -40.326454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.609266, "energy": 63.671274, "activity_lines": [ 4.318, 4.533091, 5.256429, 5.601656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.3, "volume": 59951600, "typical_volume": 94862407.95, "trend": 5.898333, "fair_value": 4.69141, "relative_strength": -35.640869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.97711, "energy": 58.30813, "activity_lines": [ 4.292667, 4.441091, 5.120095, 5.49271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.61, "volume": 66140200, "typical_volume": 87316036.95, "trend": 5.824667, "fair_value": 4.696218, "relative_strength": -33.516616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.422609, "energy": 53.733907, "activity_lines": [ 4.372, 4.44, 5.022524, 5.409591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }