{ "ticker": { "uuid": "786af84b-f2b7-4629-b9e2-1cf916bf4b9a", "symbol": "BMKS3", "name": "Bicicletas Monark S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.179, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.589, "architecture_energy": 10.767, "architecture_maturity": 8.971, "architecture_confidence": 88.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.95, "rotation_up": 22.47, "upward_expansion": 42.1, "deceleration": 77.67, "rotation_down": 37.48, "downward_expansion": 36.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 379.032664, 381.664906, 382.210292, 380.935583 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 378.01001, "trend_reference": 378.684959, "distance_from_trend": -0.001782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 276.180619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.87474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028709, "excess_performance": 0.085757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001782, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022749, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368706, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008747, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028709, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.757848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141, "relative_activity": 0.602564, "balance": 0.757848, "dry_up": 0.644231, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036149, "annualized_volatility": 0.152619, "from_high_reference": -0.066642, "from_low_reference": 0.255553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 378.684959, "fair_value_reference": 276.180619, "structural_low": 353.824565, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001533, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006455, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.091998, "worst_return": -0.0215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036404, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.103169, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.048871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.134908, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.176533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.476518, "worst_return": 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"relative_strength": 0.062012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.109039, "energy": 28.77918, "activity_lines": [ 386.261332, 384.424728, 383.32643, 380.52821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 380.519989, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 255.75, "trend": 376.96418, "fair_value": 272.783963, "relative_strength": 0.767724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.795213, "energy": 21.271092, "activity_lines": [ 384.238662, 383.975089, 383.271208, 380.820313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 379.519989, "volume": 222, "typical_volume": 250.8, "trend": 377.720794, "fair_value": 273.883081, "relative_strength": 0.305223, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.383178, "energy": 11.352478, "activity_lines": [ 382.577993, 383.58836, 383.091051, 380.985204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 377.209991, "volume": 93, "typical_volume": 240.95, "trend": 378.268331, "fair_value": 275.028051, "relative_strength": -2.485429, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.420862, "energy": 8.333571, "activity_lines": [ 380.245992, 382.610359, 382.633467, 380.952249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 378.01001, "volume": 141, "typical_volume": 234.0, "trend": 378.684959, "fair_value": 276.180619, "relative_strength": 0.87474, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.58861, "energy": 10.766858, "activity_lines": [ 379.032664, 381.664906, 382.210292, 380.935583 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }