{ "ticker": { "uuid": "786e1735-98bb-4fd4-96d0-028e15565bb0", "symbol": "USM", "name": "Union Star Metals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.679, "architecture_energy": 62.747, "architecture_maturity": 82.157, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 11.57, "deceleration": 55.63, "rotation_down": 52.27, "downward_expansion": 82.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0094, 0.009709, 0.01081, 0.012338 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.009, "trend_reference": 0.014833, "distance_from_trend": -0.393258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.025647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.649088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.040316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.526316, "excess_performance": -0.590021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.393258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163534, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.649088, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.540403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.526316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2005000, "relative_activity": 1.717217, "balance": 0.223799, "dry_up": 1.223735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.683303, "from_high_reference": -0.790698, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014833, "fair_value_reference": 0.025647, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.094789, "positive_rate": 0.236842, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.096983, "regime_survival": 0.921053, "best_return": 0.583333, "worst_return": -0.37037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.266194, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.272806, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.574074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.251579, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.270867, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.166667, "worst_return": -0.62963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.423077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", 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-47.690252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.484614, "energy": 84.690939, "activity_lines": [ 0.0098, 0.010473, 0.011781, 0.013516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 1249161, "typical_volume": 1117684.6, "trend": 0.015433, "fair_value": 0.026564, "relative_strength": -47.106217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.66269, "energy": 80.717266, "activity_lines": [ 0.0098, 0.010273, 0.011471, 0.013153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.009, "volume": 1506917, "typical_volume": 1170313.85, "trend": 0.0152, "fair_value": 0.026077, "relative_strength": -53.078124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.350546, "energy": 65.268956, "activity_lines": [ 0.0096, 0.009964, 0.011119, 0.012738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.009, "volume": 2005000, "typical_volume": 1167586.7, "trend": 0.014833, "fair_value": 0.025647, "relative_strength": -54.040316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.678692, "energy": 62.747235, "activity_lines": [ 0.0094, 0.009709, 0.01081, 0.012338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }