{ "ticker": { "uuid": "786f36f8-2e83-488b-bf41-1008360e08b5", "symbol": "TIJARIA", "name": "Tijaria Polypipes Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.347, "architecture_energy": 22.283, "architecture_maturity": 14.411, "architecture_confidence": 61.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.59, "rotation_up": 55.59, "upward_expansion": 39.42, "deceleration": 35.21, "rotation_down": 24.15, "downward_expansion": 21.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.825333, 4.645273, 4.585571, 4.610043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 4.648333, "distance_from_trend": 0.095016, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.795897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421321, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.310916, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.243685, "excess_performance": -0.199976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095016, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421321, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084478, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217831, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243685, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 20.798735, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 869949, "relative_activity": 4.597083, "balance": 20.798735, "dry_up": 3.417229, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106241, "annualized_volatility": 0.568164, "from_high_reference": -0.407451, "from_low_reference": 0.433803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.648333, "fair_value_reference": 8.795897, "structural_low": 3.87, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.054897, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.014199, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 1.413223, "worst_return": -0.232394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.138462, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.178259, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 2.892562, "worst_return": -0.464789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02963, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.166866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.446281, "worst_return": -0.234293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.363891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.76, "worst_return": -0.618838, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.198675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.971429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037226, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.208627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077815, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.24183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011928, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.15, "volume": 37207, "typical_volume": 73713.25, "trend": 5.793333, "fair_value": 6.483654, "relative_strength": -14.281536, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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4.31, "volume": 168967, "typical_volume": 96708.55, "trend": 4.609, "fair_value": 8.806731, "relative_strength": -19.859417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.277302, "energy": 49.074411, "activity_lines": [ 4.324, 4.407091, 4.472667, 4.549892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.64, "volume": 711102, "typical_volume": 124653.1, "trend": 4.597667, "fair_value": 8.801859, "relative_strength": -10.758615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.523987, "energy": 25.771313, "activity_lines": [ 4.404, 4.44, 4.48319, 4.551892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.03, "volume": 836679, "typical_volume": 156280.35, "trend": 4.621, "fair_value": 8.798526, "relative_strength": -4.757358, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.736409, "energy": 12.656758, "activity_lines": [ 4.630667, 4.541273, 4.531476, 4.579785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 869949, "typical_volume": 189239.35, "trend": 4.648333, "fair_value": 8.795897, "relative_strength": -3.310916, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.346632, "energy": 22.282784, "activity_lines": [ 4.825333, 4.645273, 4.585571, 4.610043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }