{ "ticker": { "uuid": "787664b0-cd65-4263-b709-1710f7c41cc4", "symbol": "GOAT", "name": "VanEck Morningstar Global Wide Moat UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.581, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 99.433, "architecture_energy": 99.651, "architecture_maturity": 16.554, "architecture_confidence": 60.763, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 91.74, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.01, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.119, 29.577091, 29.074714, 28.839452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.1, "trend_reference": 28.745, "distance_from_trend": 0.081927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.006539, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.05556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077616, "excess_performance": -0.005267, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006489, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195853, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075992, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001261, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.74056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 358, "relative_activity": 0.872001, "balance": 1.74056, "dry_up": 0.516989, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010858, "annualized_volatility": 0.135475, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.161748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.745, "fair_value_reference": 26.006539, "structural_low": 26.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance 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28.875, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 866.95, "trend": 28.594333, "fair_value": 25.770096, "relative_strength": -9.211411, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.262631, "energy": 38.558394, "activity_lines": [ 28.650334, 28.543818, 28.394786, 28.463807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.135, "volume": 310, "typical_volume": 719.55, "trend": 28.611333, "fair_value": 25.812821, "relative_strength": -7.009041, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.72511, "energy": 57.136416, "activity_lines": [ 28.836334, 28.67, 28.469833, 28.498688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 696.0, "trend": 28.641333, "fair_value": 25.856699, "relative_strength": -6.872396, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.187351, "energy": 75.402696, "activity_lines": [ 29.040333, 28.812364, 28.565691, 28.545699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.389999, "volume": 449, "typical_volume": 661.4, "trend": 28.659167, "fair_value": 25.899423, "relative_strength": -6.394122, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.057162, "energy": 83.656747, "activity_lines": [ 29.205666, 28.948818, 28.6655, 28.594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.075001, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": 634.7, "trend": 28.711333, "fair_value": 25.949135, "relative_strength": -4.125473, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 69.370671, "energy": 88.674203, "activity_lines": [ 29.54, 29.183727, 28.826405, 28.685344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.1, "volume": 358, "typical_volume": 410.55, "trend": 28.745, "fair_value": 26.006539, "relative_strength": -2.05556, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 99.433243, "energy": 99.651017, "activity_lines": [ 30.119, 29.577091, 29.074714, 28.839452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }