{ "ticker": { "uuid": "787ada3d-4f40-4292-b940-362ba7ca374f", "symbol": "GMET", "name": "Guardian Metal Resources PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.845, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.3, "architecture_energy": 73.144, "architecture_maturity": 19.428, "architecture_confidence": 80.701, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.56, "rotation_up": 9.92, "upward_expansion": 16.8, "deceleration": 37.35, "rotation_down": 74.49, "downward_expansion": 92.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 158.466667, 175.463636, 200.911905, 212.609677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 170.0, "trend_reference": 217.35, "distance_from_trend": -0.217851, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.655128, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.308054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.602994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086022, "excess_performance": -0.137257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122096, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.308054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.104671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.537988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1034310, "relative_activity": 0.700928, "balance": 1.065518, "dry_up": 0.731775, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230701, "annualized_volatility": 0.981253, "from_high_reference": -0.451613, "from_low_reference": 2.206035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 217.35, "fair_value_reference": 73.655128, "structural_low": 126.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.506329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", 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228.494624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 145.0, "volume": 1653789, "typical_volume": 1712112.6, "trend": 216.2, "fair_value": 70.789103, "relative_strength": -15.682218, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.615896, "energy": 63.192776, "activity_lines": [ 182.666667, 201.927273, 221.138095, 223.95914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 161.0, "volume": 811759, "typical_volume": 1652933.4, "trend": 216.633333, "fair_value": 71.765064, "relative_strength": -8.463833, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.895438, "energy": 64.313645, "activity_lines": [ 170.333333, 192.181818, 214.192857, 220.397849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.5, "volume": 819458, "typical_volume": 1604779.85, "trend": 216.583333, "fair_value": 72.621474, "relative_strength": -20.615733, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.230489, "energy": 80.206522, "activity_lines": [ 156.933333, 180.436364, 206.028571, 215.615054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 170.0, "volume": 1034310, "typical_volume": 1475630.05, "trend": 217.35, "fair_value": 73.655128, "relative_strength": -6.602994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.299909, "energy": 73.143785, "activity_lines": [ 158.466667, 175.463636, 200.911905, 212.609677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }