{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7880f314-7944-4127-9cc5-0035590711a6", "symbol": "1030", "name": "The Saudi Investment Bank", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 67.527, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.575, "architecture_energy": 37.682, "architecture_maturity": 10.402, "architecture_confidence": 60.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.04, "rotation_up": 53.54, "upward_expansion": 50.67, "deceleration": 32.13, "rotation_down": 24.36, "downward_expansion": 16.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.497349, 13.417938, 13.303288, 13.27764 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.72, "trend_reference": 13.320006, "distance_from_trend": 0.03003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.832198, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069185, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.950313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036517, "excess_performance": -0.004687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069185, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039204, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039503, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.537107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3653817, "relative_activity": 1.458115, "balance": 2.537107, "dry_up": 1.020253, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025962, "annualized_volatility": 0.135118, "from_high_reference": -0.073599, "from_low_reference": 0.119086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.320006, "fair_value_reference": 12.832198, "structural_low": 12.26, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014894, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.000859, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.056872, "worst_return": -0.128571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00032, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010437, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.20701, "worst_return": -0.081784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.066075, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284382, "worst_return": -0.176531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 0.662984, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.698082, "energy": 23.195651, "activity_lines": [ 13.325793, 13.264523, 13.191717, 13.233061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.16451, "volume": 1346756, "typical_volume": 2464915.85, "trend": 13.274627, "fair_value": 12.808176, "relative_strength": 0.738574, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.759729, "energy": 10.274875, "activity_lines": [ 13.269205, 13.258388, 13.193507, 13.226741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.46569, "volume": 2486967, "typical_volume": 2372674.75, "trend": 13.289483, "fair_value": 12.817315, "relative_strength": 2.380988, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.241271, "energy": 12.954037, "activity_lines": [ 13.322042, 13.305864, 13.225578, 13.239068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.46569, "volume": 2738862, "typical_volume": 2370000.0, "trend": 13.29834, "fair_value": 12.82448, "relative_strength": 4.447423, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.400285, "energy": 17.340979, "activity_lines": [ 13.369167, 13.342094, 13.254051, 13.250436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.72, "volume": 3653817, "typical_volume": 2505850.35, "trend": 13.320006, "fair_value": 12.832198, "relative_strength": 3.950313, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.574611, "energy": 37.681763, "activity_lines": [ 13.497349, 13.417938, 13.303288, 13.27764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }