{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7884a307-1aff-4931-8b93-caa70a6bb3d8", "symbol": "HEAD", "name": "Headlam Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.695, "architecture_energy": 85.57, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.175, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 10.59, "upward_expansion": 21.24, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 77.71, "downward_expansion": 96.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.096707, 0.132156, 0.217798, 0.266578 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.124, "trend_reference": 0.326087, "distance_from_trend": -0.619733, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.128578, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.890127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.746842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.70892, "excess_performance": -0.760155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.619733, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.890127, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.737468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.473997, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.70892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.499925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24944823, "relative_activity": 3.168834, "balance": 0.499925, "dry_up": 3.777963, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.560174, "annualized_volatility": 1.756394, "from_high_reference": -0.844612, "from_low_reference": 1.672414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.326087, "fair_value_reference": 1.128578, "structural_low": 0.0464, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.035911, "positive_rate": 0.354167, "directional_follow_through": 0.645833, "median_excess_return": -0.030842, "regime_survival": 0.895833, "best_return": 0.421053, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.14554, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.126557, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.166855, "worst_return": -0.270833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.196779, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.240301, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.054812, "worst_return": -0.427957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-84.290546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.414006, "energy": 86.390753, "activity_lines": [ 0.157733, 0.209673, 0.280705, 0.317708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0668, "volume": 65063553, "typical_volume": 5704893.7, "trend": 0.35086, "fair_value": 1.154082, "relative_strength": -86.599606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.413481, "energy": 85.163995, "activity_lines": [ 0.122067, 0.173636, 0.256138, 0.298492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0698, "volume": 21716165, "typical_volume": 6764359.55, "trend": 0.33762, "fair_value": 1.141126, "relative_strength": -85.661683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.054108, "energy": 90.090087, "activity_lines": [ 0.09628, 0.144785, 0.233515, 0.28036 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.124, "volume": 24944823, "typical_volume": 7871924.15, "trend": 0.326087, "fair_value": 1.128578, "relative_strength": -73.746842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.695114, "energy": 85.570069, "activity_lines": [ 0.096707, 0.132156, 0.217798, 0.266578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }