{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7886a969-65bb-4128-bcde-fcf8b7050823", "symbol": "MCHI", "name": "iShares MSCI China ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.724, "architecture_energy": 25.113, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.91, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.73, "rotation_up": 41.0, "upward_expansion": 24.6, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 19.69, "downward_expansion": 56.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 952.347331, 936.114077, 944.71318, 960.617722 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 967.0, "trend_reference": 987.74761, "distance_from_trend": -0.021005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 918.199419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053148, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.333767, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089642, "excess_performance": -0.034976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053148, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.277434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33218, "relative_activity": 0.535653, "balance": 0.277434, "dry_up": 0.327067, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028026, "annualized_volatility": 0.15657, "from_high_reference": -0.215701, "from_low_reference": 0.102623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 987.74761, "fair_value_reference": 918.199419, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 937.98999, "volume": 9280, "typical_volume": 73819.2, "trend": 997.944279, "fair_value": 915.913458, "relative_strength": -13.130786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.234719, "energy": 45.716578, "activity_lines": [ 924.248665, 922.52915, 944.095211, 964.519629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 963.309998, "volume": 20956, "typical_volume": 68135.0, "trend": 992.845278, "fair_value": 916.917806, "relative_strength": -11.088431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.219006, "energy": 26.332621, "activity_lines": [ 940.359998, 929.054924, 944.05541, 962.285159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 967.0, "volume": 33218, "typical_volume": 62014.05, "trend": 987.74761, "fair_value": 918.199419, "relative_strength": -10.333767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.723966, "energy": 25.113158, "activity_lines": [ 952.347331, 936.114077, 944.71318, 960.617722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }