{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7888f081-ca7f-49e3-9242-ee59034a14c9", "symbol": "HKOR", "name": "HSBC MSCI KOREA CAPPED UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.089, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.668, "architecture_energy": 24.384, "architecture_maturity": 65.924, "architecture_confidence": 77.157, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.0, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 42.75, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 50.39, "downward_expansion": 39.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.859613, 145.72465, 148.641614, 141.614388 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 135.800003, "trend_reference": 131.010956, "distance_from_trend": 0.036555, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 67.863879, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.001065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.667808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.36236, "excess_performance": 0.279476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.23677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.001065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.642657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.176678, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.720962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.36236, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93293, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14645, "relative_activity": 2.396184, "balance": 0.93293, "dry_up": 2.842452, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111414, "annualized_volatility": 0.572636, "from_high_reference": -0.246978, "from_low_reference": 1.379913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.010956, "fair_value_reference": 67.863879, "structural_low": 94.989998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017314, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.003936, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.279572, "worst_return": -0.067887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045571, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.04261, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.564817, "worst_return": -0.017741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003572, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059968, "worst_return": -0.06045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031836, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027019, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", 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"trend": 127.807365, "fair_value": 66.78457, "relative_strength": 25.186827, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.239831, "energy": 26.451462, "activity_lines": [ 145.419095, 153.811594, 149.911239, 140.873798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.998062, "volume": 23541, "typical_volume": 6272.65, "trend": 129.511562, "fair_value": 67.310269, "relative_strength": 18.092718, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.957495, "energy": 22.158262, "activity_lines": [ 139.650299, 149.311565, 149.210377, 141.208682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.800003, "volume": 14645, "typical_volume": 6111.8, "trend": 131.010956, "fair_value": 67.863879, "relative_strength": 17.667808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.668171, "energy": 24.383657, "activity_lines": [ 136.859613, 145.72465, 148.641614, 141.614388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }