{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7889f657-fa3a-435f-9979-96405e622ed2", "symbol": "688619", "name": "ROPEOK Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.12, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.761, "architecture_energy": 47.576, "architecture_maturity": 11.65, "architecture_confidence": 62.808, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.44, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 17.13, "deceleration": 45.73, "rotation_down": 65.23, "downward_expansion": 58.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.186667, 13.957091, 15.126571, 15.278107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.19, "trend_reference": 15.268333, "distance_from_trend": -0.070625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.770641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.89224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015748, "excess_performance": 0.058952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003593, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.388467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18461694, "relative_activity": 0.893412, "balance": 1.388467, "dry_up": 1.08104, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178674, "annualized_volatility": 0.595742, "from_high_reference": -0.330028, "from_low_reference": 0.288828 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.268333, "fair_value_reference": 11.770641, "structural_low": 11.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.022503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017345, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064841, "worst_return": -0.109848, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056136, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.090559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070605, "worst_return": 0.041667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.121559, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131124, "worst_return": -0.374242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.50668, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020893, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 21918359.7, "trend": 15.302667, "fair_value": 11.781538, "relative_strength": -13.572855, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.746628, "energy": 48.634308, "activity_lines": [ 13.580667, 14.722, 15.593333, 15.54271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.26, "volume": 14623486, "typical_volume": 21177274.3, "trend": 15.248667, "fair_value": 11.765256, "relative_strength": -17.547956, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.121297, "energy": 60.215585, "activity_lines": [ 12.947333, 14.089636, 15.260095, 15.346408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.19, "volume": 18461694, "typical_volume": 20664246.95, "trend": 15.268333, "fair_value": 11.770641, "relative_strength": -6.89224, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.760816, "energy": 47.576358, "activity_lines": [ 13.186667, 13.957091, 15.126571, 15.278107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }