{ "ticker": { "uuid": "788d3a03-102d-4d50-8eaa-54d9e36790d0", "symbol": "329650", "name": "Samsung Kodex TRF3070 ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.752, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.367, "architecture_energy": 39.211, "architecture_maturity": 4.302, "architecture_confidence": 75.54, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.96, "rotation_up": 18.17, "upward_expansion": 24.34, "deceleration": 49.1, "rotation_down": 60.74, "downward_expansion": 49.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14225.935482, 14296.077592, 14362.291616, 14352.681424 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14275.0, "trend_reference": 14329.155697, "distance_from_trend": -0.003779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13068.14999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09235, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.966121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002454, "excess_performance": -0.227375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003913, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09235, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.247313, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.86375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190464, "relative_activity": 0.604462, "balance": 0.86375, "dry_up": 0.707272, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014655, "annualized_volatility": 0.047148, "from_high_reference": -0.025357, "from_low_reference": 0.049155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14329.155697, "fair_value_reference": 13068.14999, "structural_low": 14035.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.023009, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.023009, "worst_return": 0.023009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.065487, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065487, "worst_return": 0.065487, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.088496, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088496, "worst_return": 0.088496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-29.594385, "energy": 28.70343, "activity_lines": [ 14286.2278, 14358.568501, 14391.382724, 14366.292337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14170.0, "volume": 228164, "typical_volume": 323162.85, "trend": 14327.703125, "fair_value": 13048.373178, "relative_strength": -26.524337, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.341409, "energy": 39.287049, "activity_lines": [ 14230.784896, 14314.761914, 14371.642527, 14356.081626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14275.0, "volume": 190464, "typical_volume": 315096.8, "trend": 14329.155697, "fair_value": 13068.14999, "relative_strength": -20.966121, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.367388, "energy": 39.210758, "activity_lines": [ 14225.935482, 14296.077592, 14362.291616, 14352.681424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }