{ "ticker": { "uuid": "788d5b4b-ad3b-4070-b9f4-aacd9c1bff57", "symbol": "002778", "name": "Jiangsu Zhongsheng Gaoke Environmental Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.424, "architecture_energy": 63.664, "architecture_maturity": 49.004, "architecture_confidence": 89.721, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 18.03, "upward_expansion": 11.53, "deceleration": 55.81, "rotation_down": 68.2, "downward_expansion": 87.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.572667, 15.098364, 16.644762, 17.759204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.07, "trend_reference": 19.173333, "distance_from_trend": -0.214013, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.185962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.230074, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310928, "excess_performance": -0.318328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214013, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.252008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11811200, "relative_activity": 0.998822, "balance": 0.252008, "dry_up": 1.037616, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100046, "annualized_volatility": 0.274181, "from_high_reference": -0.379835, "from_low_reference": 0.155675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.173333, "fair_value_reference": 16.185962, "structural_low": 13.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.000784, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.007503, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.314872, "worst_return": -0.178319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103387, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.073487, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.724696, "worst_return": -0.208305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.065076, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.640724, "worst_return": -0.213934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.099285, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.722172, "worst_return": -0.202143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126055, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118168, "active": false 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19.111075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.62, "volume": 10707160, "typical_volume": 12280235.65, "trend": 19.837666, "fair_value": 16.196795, "relative_strength": -27.263694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.634509, "energy": 91.284025, "activity_lines": [ 15.312667, 16.310727, 17.801619, 18.761441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.92, "volume": 11632880, "typical_volume": 12092492.25, "trend": 19.601333, "fair_value": 16.191987, "relative_strength": -30.4089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.367453, "energy": 90.198402, "activity_lines": [ 14.71, 15.715636, 17.330524, 18.379656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.29, "volume": 14928505, "typical_volume": 11830254.7, "trend": 19.375667, "fair_value": 16.185897, "relative_strength": -26.900212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.336817, "energy": 78.743377, "activity_lines": [ 14.452667, 15.290909, 16.934571, 18.036989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.07, "volume": 11811200, "typical_volume": 11825126.45, "trend": 19.173333, "fair_value": 16.185962, "relative_strength": -26.230074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.423996, "energy": 63.664126, "activity_lines": [ 14.572667, 15.098364, 16.644762, 17.759204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }