{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78916109-b191-477c-9363-475d4bb0b7bf", "symbol": "FRES", "name": "Fresnillo plc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.666, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.021, "architecture_energy": 89.385, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.056, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.0, "rotation_up": 8.27, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 84.64, "downward_expansion": 99.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 585.411995, 628.314179, 693.826093, 734.572298 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 581.0, "trend_reference": 792.899998, "distance_from_trend": -0.267247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 350.278025, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.658682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.262186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.354444, "excess_performance": -0.299778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.267247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000144, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.658682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69788, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3998, "relative_activity": 1.367235, "balance": 0.69788, "dry_up": 3.35371, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081877, "annualized_volatility": 0.520653, "from_high_reference": -0.48125, "from_low_reference": 0.592676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 792.899998, "fair_value_reference": 350.278025, "structural_low": 570.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.015405, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.011847, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.297532, "worst_return": -0.17734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010408, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.05251, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.274943, "worst_return": -0.18516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011008, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.080003, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.159453, "worst_return": -0.228049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -5.40825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.960217, "energy": 90.493952, "activity_lines": [ 696.333333, 741.656363, 765.166474, 793.842493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 579.75, "volume": 10645, "typical_volume": 1719.85, "trend": 812.610999, "fair_value": 341.630569, "relative_strength": -18.047965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.173377, "energy": 96.682029, "activity_lines": [ 650.783333, 707.691818, 744.63795, 778.534794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 575.0, "volume": 10719, "typical_volume": 2246.6, "trend": 806.677665, "fair_value": 344.477971, "relative_strength": -18.747775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.276503, "energy": 94.579451, "activity_lines": [ 615.0, 675.45, 725.515379, 763.205052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 581.669983, "volume": 13865, "typical_volume": 2935.4, "trend": 799.799998, "fair_value": 347.38019, "relative_strength": -18.818907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.986393, "energy": 91.418796, "activity_lines": [ 596.173328, 649.503633, 708.813759, 748.688427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 581.0, "volume": 3998, "typical_volume": 2924.15, "trend": 792.899998, "fair_value": 350.278025, "relative_strength": -19.262186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.021449, "energy": 89.385143, "activity_lines": [ 585.411995, 628.314179, 693.826093, 734.572298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }