{ "ticker": { "uuid": "789c3149-c92d-4da7-bbfd-10b2d4b748a5", "symbol": "FOS", "name": "FOS Capital Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.008, "architecture_energy": 20.442, "architecture_maturity": 33.557, "architecture_confidence": 52.009, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.79, "rotation_up": 42.98, "upward_expansion": 33.58, "deceleration": 47.1, "rotation_down": 16.78, "downward_expansion": 44.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.135333, 0.126909, 0.125714, 0.130925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.14, "trend_reference": 0.145667, "distance_from_trend": -0.038902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.229161, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.389076, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.016488, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.348837, "excess_performance": -0.412543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229956, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.389076, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009752, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.348837, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.597509, "dry_up": 0.10778, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10989, "annualized_volatility": 0.776978, "from_high_reference": -0.567678, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.145667, "fair_value_reference": 0.229161, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031248, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.040876, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.032256, "worst_return": -0.12069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016131, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080874, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.016396, "worst_return": -0.152062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.245619, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.300656, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.491237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.270152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125001, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087721, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.200627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.153481, "volume": 6178, "typical_volume": 30726.55, "trend": 0.17131, "fair_value": 0.199114, "relative_strength": -14.824793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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0.118727, 0.12269, 0.134108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 24308, "typical_volume": 86745.8, "trend": 0.153, "fair_value": 0.229513, "relative_strength": -36.344253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.481993, "energy": 26.494869, "activity_lines": [ 0.122, 0.120364, 0.123, 0.132366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.14, "volume": 5037, "typical_volume": 85241.5, "trend": 0.149333, "fair_value": 0.229337, "relative_strength": -31.973038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.880537, "energy": 17.284375, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.123727, 0.124333, 0.131527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 79664.5, "trend": 0.145667, "fair_value": 0.229161, "relative_strength": -33.016488, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.008024, "energy": 20.442454, "activity_lines": [ 0.135333, 0.126909, 0.125714, 0.130925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }