{ "ticker": { "uuid": "789cf6cd-6f2d-418d-a517-9cb16e48e7b0", "symbol": "FGLR", "name": "Fidelity Global Equity Research Enhanced UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.337, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.571, "architecture_energy": 73.683, "architecture_maturity": 66.853, "architecture_confidence": 72.184, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.72, "rotation_up": 62.5, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.6932, 10.624545, 10.432448, 10.207841 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.88, "trend_reference": 9.956133, "distance_from_trend": 0.092794, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.593833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266024, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.393575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142377, "excess_performance": -0.028515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044152, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000288, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173986, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2033, "relative_activity": 2.530023, "balance": 1.173986, "dry_up": 2.220459, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014762, "annualized_volatility": 0.117047, "from_high_reference": -0.002567, "from_low_reference": 0.237207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.956133, "fair_value_reference": 8.593833, "structural_low": 9.05, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.01416, "positive_rate": 0.689655, "directional_follow_through": 0.689655, "median_excess_return": -0.005777, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.065233, "worst_return": -0.098771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030549, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.017605, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.094729, "worst_return": -0.078386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058554, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.002588, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.143996, "worst_return": -0.061956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023866, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008274, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 10.662, "volume": 204, "typical_volume": 548.85, "trend": 9.7989, "fair_value": 8.495564, "relative_strength": -3.749478, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.283614, "energy": 92.8643, "activity_lines": [ 10.5556, 10.448873, 10.179, 9.997359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.684, "volume": 937, "typical_volume": 595.65, "trend": 9.843067, "fair_value": 8.521045, "relative_strength": -2.101219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.757745, "energy": 91.414769, "activity_lines": [ 10.6244, 10.5068, 10.251105, 10.054462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.584, "volume": 1420, "typical_volume": 656.95, "trend": 9.8808, "fair_value": 8.544442, "relative_strength": -2.768879, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.287527, "energy": 87.475046, "activity_lines": [ 10.6252, 10.536182, 10.3084, 10.102265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.554, "volume": 2747, "typical_volume": 712.9, "trend": 9.916767, "fair_value": 8.567705, "relative_strength": -3.592117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.223396, "energy": 66.057352, "activity_lines": [ 10.606533, 10.553564, 10.357548, 10.145697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.88, "volume": 2033, "typical_volume": 803.55, "trend": 9.956133, "fair_value": 8.593833, "relative_strength": -3.393575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.57088, "energy": 73.682834, "activity_lines": [ 10.6932, 10.624545, 10.432448, 10.207841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }