{ "ticker": { "uuid": "789ed7f8-39fb-4944-8f8d-5f113c859b51", "symbol": "NEXI", "name": "Nexi S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 67.034, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.983, "architecture_energy": 91.893, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.08, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.68, "rotation_up": 85.61, "upward_expansion": 99.83, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.9, "downward_expansion": 21.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.1686, 3.984055, 3.771634, 3.591925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.297, "trend_reference": 3.411367, "distance_from_trend": 0.259612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.676186, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081089, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.275495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.352993, "excess_performance": 0.178747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.259612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081089, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.352993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5658, "relative_activity": 0.612775, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.68869, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053801, "annualized_volatility": 0.461842, "from_high_reference": -0.179032, "from_low_reference": 0.717338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.411367, "fair_value_reference": 4.676186, "structural_low": 2.502129, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.029053, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003866, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.088675, "worst_return": -0.150609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.111887, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.158583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.104616, "worst_return": -0.119157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.26781, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.448857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.243718, "worst_return": -0.291903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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3.538876, 3.422428, 3.35311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.947, "volume": 27831, "typical_volume": 4390.75, "trend": 3.359686, "fair_value": 4.739603, "relative_strength": -16.4262, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.843031, "energy": 78.829795, "activity_lines": [ 3.727667, 3.611909, 3.486809, 3.39143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.093, "volume": 53880, "typical_volume": 7084.75, "trend": 3.37325, "fair_value": 4.723147, "relative_strength": -10.729105, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.227195, "energy": 88.154946, "activity_lines": [ 3.8784, 3.706109, 3.560417, 3.43874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.973, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6984.75, "trend": 3.378616, "fair_value": 4.704944, "relative_strength": -13.536618, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.016637, "energy": 85.005268, "activity_lines": [ 3.943933, 3.774418, 3.618435, 3.477434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.248, "volume": 39765, "typical_volume": 8973.0, "trend": 3.39177, "fair_value": 4.688189, "relative_strength": -6.619208, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.20551, "energy": 92.986695, "activity_lines": [ 4.071267, 3.882564, 3.696261, 3.533523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.297, "volume": 5658, "typical_volume": 9233.4, "trend": 3.411367, "fair_value": 4.676186, "relative_strength": -7.275495, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.982901, "energy": 91.893458, "activity_lines": [ 4.1686, 3.984055, 3.771634, 3.591925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }