{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78a19039-ef5e-4efb-95fa-dc1c4432fae4", "symbol": "KSM-F138", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) FTSE 100 Currency Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.268, "architecture_energy": 63.514, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.609, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.54, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.94, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.3, 130.683636, 2825.202857, 5265.306667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 133.9, "trend_reference": 8069.45, "distance_from_trend": -0.983407, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9628.516026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.764877, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989254, "excess_performance": -1.018154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986093, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.214646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.794076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.053371, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8644, "relative_activity": 2.54097, "balance": 1.053371, "dry_up": 1.334494, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.335842, "annualized_volatility": 6.375507, "from_high_reference": -0.989917, "from_low_reference": 0.058498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8069.45, "fair_value_reference": 9628.516026, "structural_low": 126.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019455, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.008418, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.067645, "worst_return": -0.018123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044197, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.017238, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.127374, "worst_return": -0.031873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.091441, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09641, "worst_return": 0.050555, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.0, "volume": 1576, "typical_volume": 3031.15, "trend": 8872.843333, "fair_value": 9745.777564, "relative_strength": -98.873826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.899657, "energy": 67.85596, "activity_lines": [ 129.326667, 357.1, 4078.683333, 6367.175269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.3, "volume": 4883, "typical_volume": 2985.95, "trend": 8474.32, "fair_value": 9687.067949, "relative_strength": -98.786909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.468415, "energy": 64.001303, "activity_lines": [ 131.073333, 129.785455, 3422.210476, 5803.39828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 133.9, "volume": 8644, "typical_volume": 3401.85, "trend": 8069.45, "fair_value": 9628.516026, "relative_strength": -98.764877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.267916, "energy": 63.514458, "activity_lines": [ 132.3, 130.683636, 2825.202857, 5265.306667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }