{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78a2f50d-4bd0-401f-bef6-254f4839fb31", "symbol": "PETKM", "name": "Petkim Petrokimya Holding Anonim Sirketi", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.774, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.157, "architecture_energy": 19.234, "architecture_maturity": 7.066, "architecture_confidence": 77.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.13, "rotation_up": 48.59, "upward_expansion": 34.74, "deceleration": 42.7, "rotation_down": 15.81, "downward_expansion": 14.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.684, 21.036727, 20.645476, 20.929871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.059999, "trend_reference": 21.006667, "distance_from_trend": 0.002539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.711987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.822616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096875, "excess_performance": 0.08103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067415, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088226, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20653, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.067712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 426978062, "relative_activity": 2.005391, "balance": 1.067712, "dry_up": 2.794043, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111622, "annualized_volatility": 0.532383, "from_high_reference": -0.249465, "from_low_reference": 0.306451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.006667, "fair_value_reference": 19.711987, "structural_low": 18.280001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.080435, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.027125, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.524975, "worst_return": -0.098717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.134101, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.080484, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.450561, "worst_return": -0.084746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.142033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.121552, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.313965, "worst_return": -0.133855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.450084, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.259109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.928644, "worst_return": 0.027609, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003517, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112183, 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"activity_lines": [ 19.690667, 19.827091, 20.497095, 20.660387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 20.040001, "volume": 299243418, "typical_volume": 190832975.8, "trend": 20.483667, "fair_value": 19.664231, "relative_strength": -9.074897, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.092239, "energy": 26.628696, "activity_lines": [ 19.744, 19.865091, 20.381953, 20.635204 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 20.059999, "volume": 371544234, "typical_volume": 173453948.9, "trend": 20.562, "fair_value": 19.659231, "relative_strength": -4.576901, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.77347, "energy": 9.560205, "activity_lines": [ 19.936, 19.908182, 20.275, 20.607871 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 24.68, "volume": 985136034, "typical_volume": 198580723.85, "trend": 20.746, "fair_value": 19.693013, "relative_strength": 13.626496, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.498532, "energy": 33.434364, "activity_lines": [ 21.605333, 20.782546, 20.617191, 20.873548 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 21.440001, "volume": 595918000, "typical_volume": 211863168.6, "trend": 20.881, "fair_value": 19.702885, "relative_strength": 7.477338, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.677234, "energy": 23.718617, "activity_lines": [ 21.784, 20.963273, 20.643572, 20.918323 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 21.059999, "volume": 426978062, "typical_volume": 212915128.35, "trend": 21.006667, "fair_value": 19.711987, "relative_strength": 8.822616, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.157498, "energy": 19.234, "activity_lines": [ 21.684, 21.036727, 20.645476, 20.929871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }