{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78a5e45e-c7ae-43cd-b126-89d9afe7e050", "symbol": "600289", "name": "Bright Oceans Inter-Telecom Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.408, "architecture_energy": 87.677, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.304, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 10.04, "upward_expansion": 21.49, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 76.63, "downward_expansion": 94.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.582667, 4.938909, 5.444429, 5.878731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 6.341, "distance_from_trend": -0.306103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.104038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.430924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.338346, "excess_performance": -0.295142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.501705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144457, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.364618, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23076000, "relative_activity": 1.028284, "balance": 0.364618, "dry_up": 1.107102, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134965, "annualized_volatility": 0.495582, "from_high_reference": -0.499431, "from_low_reference": 0.148825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.341, "fair_value_reference": 4.104038, "structural_low": 3.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021879, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010183, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.116183, "worst_return": -0.237435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016289, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.361538, "worst_return": -0.301587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016865, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049183, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.238462, "worst_return": -0.312169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.243612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120061, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.311532, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024927, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.120545, "energy": 54.379638, "activity_lines": [ 5.399333, 5.544545, 5.973381, 6.278581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 40609406, "typical_volume": 26876822.55, "trend": 6.487667, "fair_value": 4.078077, "relative_strength": -31.37136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.136315, "energy": 63.667836, "activity_lines": [ 5.038, 5.288909, 5.772714, 6.133785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.55, "volume": 24343871, "typical_volume": 24301411.15, "trend": 6.415667, "fair_value": 4.091795, "relative_strength": -27.685548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.675552, "energy": 82.953276, "activity_lines": [ 4.808, 5.111818, 5.607571, 6.008774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 23076000, "typical_volume": 22441262.5, "trend": 6.341, "fair_value": 4.104038, "relative_strength": -31.430924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.407873, "energy": 87.676836, "activity_lines": [ 4.582667, 4.938909, 5.444429, 5.878731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }