{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78a6fc87-b008-4e69-94d6-2e01df9d8714", "symbol": "600831", "name": "Shaanxi Broadcast & TV Network Intermediary(Group)Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.626, "architecture_energy": 38.034, "architecture_maturity": 83.177, "architecture_confidence": 59.594, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.87, "rotation_up": 23.41, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 66.42, "rotation_down": 45.34, "downward_expansion": 66.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.126667, 3.116364, 3.313333, 3.492022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.31, "trend_reference": 3.759667, "distance_from_trend": -0.119603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.833654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.361999, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23908, "excess_performance": -0.195877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114887, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108662, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23908, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.809763, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81418181, "relative_activity": 1.054305, "balance": 0.809763, "dry_up": 0.917829, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106205, "annualized_volatility": 0.378463, "from_high_reference": -0.415194, "from_low_reference": 0.225926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.759667, "fair_value_reference": 3.833654, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.018905, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009959, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.247093, "worst_return": -0.324165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.042006, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016101, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.345, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.080843, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.08285, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.43, "worst_return": -0.430464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096654, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091255, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222707, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.538721, "active": 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3.918333, "fair_value": 3.906275, "relative_strength": -27.318035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.749204, "energy": 79.187818, "activity_lines": [ 3.118667, 3.302909, 3.50381, 3.691054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.99, "volume": 73690051, "typical_volume": 74763526.2, "trend": 3.874, "fair_value": 3.887113, "relative_strength": -25.885724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.264361, "energy": 76.669657, "activity_lines": [ 3.071333, 3.214545, 3.437476, 3.631161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.84, "volume": 61032450, "typical_volume": 74673521.6, "trend": 3.823333, "fair_value": 3.867821, "relative_strength": -30.12723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.393218, "energy": 66.007472, "activity_lines": [ 2.992, 3.116545, 3.364286, 3.564452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 67374748, "typical_volume": 75617150.55, "trend": 3.789333, "fair_value": 3.849936, "relative_strength": -21.758492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.47726, "energy": 50.491279, "activity_lines": [ 3.042, 3.097091, 3.330333, 3.522946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.31, "volume": 81418181, "typical_volume": 77224506.5, "trend": 3.759667, "fair_value": 3.833654, "relative_strength": -20.361999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.625665, "energy": 38.034075, "activity_lines": [ 3.126667, 3.116364, 3.313333, 3.492022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }