{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78a77a16-cd81-4548-bfc7-ae6ef81d514c", "symbol": "ABVC", "name": "ABVC Biopharma Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.976, "architecture_energy": 45.113, "architecture_maturity": 41.36, "architecture_confidence": 65.842, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.94, "rotation_up": 11.13, "upward_expansion": 5.73, "deceleration": 52.62, "rotation_down": 71.3, "downward_expansion": 76.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.106667, 1.257818, 1.263619, 1.275806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 1.364667, "distance_from_trend": -0.252565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.386615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.264396, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -55.094809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.413793, "excess_performance": -0.601247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220784, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.264396, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106052, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.550948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.413793, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 437771, "relative_activity": 0.697329, "balance": 1.058266, "dry_up": 0.687038, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.266591, "annualized_volatility": 0.907436, "from_high_reference": -0.7, "from_low_reference": 0.158959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.364667, "fair_value_reference": 1.386615, "structural_low": 0.8801, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.09981, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.109193, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.246196, "worst_return": -0.366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.343879, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.412233, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.98522, "worst_return": -0.813842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.469159, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.497237, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 3.100855, "worst_return": -0.695015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.694615, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.734494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.898276, "worst_return": -0.834663, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.74674, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092437, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.280769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.119003, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.331475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.814016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.383562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.87, "volume": 2001427, "typical_volume": 2677417.75, "trend": 5.842059, "fair_value": 24.9973, "relative_strength": -76.735551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"2026-06-19", "close": 1.35, "volume": 703516, "typical_volume": 468657.85, "trend": 1.596333, "fair_value": 1.489731, "relative_strength": -49.740854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.616076, "energy": 16.643875, "activity_lines": [ 1.297333, 1.232727, 1.226286, 1.357613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.53, "volume": 829696, "typical_volume": 487899.7, "trend": 1.557, "fair_value": 1.466237, "relative_strength": -39.530726, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.274984, "energy": 11.505787, "activity_lines": [ 1.379333, 1.292909, 1.250238, 1.353333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.8, "volume": 770825, "typical_volume": 517805.9, "trend": 1.536667, "fair_value": 1.447833, "relative_strength": -28.278137, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 18.660705, "energy": 31.345251, "activity_lines": [ 1.525333, 1.398364, 1.300905, 1.369011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.51, "volume": 1799464, "typical_volume": 598893.7, "trend": 1.516667, "fair_value": 1.43059, "relative_strength": -39.208183, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.356189, "energy": 35.942643, "activity_lines": [ 1.548667, 1.437818, 1.323333, 1.36729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.25, "volume": 556179, "typical_volume": 613763.55, "trend": 1.485333, "fair_value": 1.414243, "relative_strength": -46.224849, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.773467, "energy": 22.945877, "activity_lines": [ 1.473333, 1.421273, 1.321, 1.350086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.15, "volume": 359414, "typical_volume": 613494.7, "trend": 1.442667, "fair_value": 1.404372, "relative_strength": -48.644981, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.802239, "energy": 18.194199, "activity_lines": [ 1.360667, 1.383091, 1.309429, 1.328452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.01, "volume": 371878, "typical_volume": 618198.2, "trend": 1.403333, "fair_value": 1.393282, "relative_strength": -54.197312, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.957602, "energy": 34.546644, "activity_lines": [ 1.214667, 1.318364, 1.285429, 1.300538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 437771, "typical_volume": 627782.9, "trend": 1.364667, "fair_value": 1.386615, "relative_strength": -55.094809, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.975591, "energy": 45.11337, "activity_lines": [ 1.106667, 1.257818, 1.263619, 1.275806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }