{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78ad327e-4c5e-46ca-ae0c-5d029788e05a", "symbol": "S59", "name": "SIA Engineering Company Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.304, "architecture_energy": 65.538, "architecture_maturity": 6.035, "architecture_confidence": 77.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.7, "rotation_up": 11.0, "upward_expansion": 14.65, "deceleration": 36.55, "rotation_down": 73.92, "downward_expansion": 85.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.134209, 3.204483, 3.219424, 3.237036 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.11, "trend_reference": 3.275209, "distance_from_trend": -0.050442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.651834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.942877, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071642, "excess_performance": -0.226477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5200000, "relative_activity": 1.617896, "balance": 0.685273, "dry_up": 1.441974, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033624, "annualized_volatility": 0.207317, "from_high_reference": -0.183727, "from_low_reference": 0.023273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.275209, "fair_value_reference": 2.651834, "structural_low": 3.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028662, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.016704, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.168182, "worst_return": -0.075893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044643, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.426606, "worst_return": 0.036319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065475, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.630819, "worst_return": 0.004465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007645, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086705, 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3.261346, 3.284024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.18368, "volume": 3164100, "typical_volume": 3288465.0, "trend": 3.324384, "fair_value": 2.634896, "relative_strength": -18.62394, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.901757, "energy": 15.612745, "activity_lines": [ 3.285708, 3.27715, 3.254088, 3.274244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.144736, "volume": 3784800, "typical_volume": 3109430.0, "trend": 3.311542, "fair_value": 2.640472, "relative_strength": -20.339105, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.133185, "energy": 27.418587, "activity_lines": [ 3.226519, 3.257256, 3.244722, 3.262654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.1, "volume": 6389400, "typical_volume": 3150130.0, "trend": 3.295542, "fair_value": 2.646061, "relative_strength": -21.626247, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.722419, "energy": 46.623292, "activity_lines": [ 3.168768, 3.229324, 3.231454, 3.249006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.11, "volume": 5200000, "typical_volume": 3214050.0, "trend": 3.275209, "fair_value": 2.651834, "relative_strength": -21.942877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.30394, "energy": 65.537552, "activity_lines": [ 3.134209, 3.204483, 3.219424, 3.237036 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }