{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78ad8383-bc24-40fa-9c78-2dc48614887f", "symbol": "FQT", "name": "Frequentis AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.609, "architecture_energy": 17.255, "architecture_maturity": 31.996, "architecture_confidence": 61.799, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.1, "rotation_up": 43.09, "upward_expansion": 28.5, "deceleration": 38.27, "rotation_down": 20.92, "downward_expansion": 51.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.793332, 70.344969, 71.922762, 72.721902 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 76.0, "trend_reference": 74.454349, "distance_from_trend": 0.02076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.01916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.68817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.6758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105882, "excess_performance": -0.170522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.68817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.504424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7389, "relative_activity": 0.550477, "balance": 1.504424, "dry_up": 1.163441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087697, "annualized_volatility": 0.461206, "from_high_reference": -0.254902, "from_low_reference": 0.402214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.454349, "fair_value_reference": 45.01916, "structural_low": 59.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012895, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.005785, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.107407, "worst_return": -0.206267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077326, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.017955, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.229633, "worst_return": -0.053333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000509, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023175, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.08671, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.073975, "energy": 71.874733, "activity_lines": [ 64.800161, 68.417171, 71.407959, 72.772422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.199997, "volume": 26734, "typical_volume": 14784.9, "trend": 74.684349, "fair_value": 44.432609, "relative_strength": -1.163138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.871922, "energy": 48.339218, "activity_lines": [ 67.326665, 68.86693, 71.473052, 72.681388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.9, "volume": 12853, "typical_volume": 14644.15, "trend": 74.587682, "fair_value": 44.721683, "relative_strength": -2.503331, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.017754, "energy": 17.608601, "activity_lines": [ 70.093332, 69.416851, 71.601954, 72.630785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.0, "volume": 7389, "typical_volume": 13422.9, "trend": 74.454349, "fair_value": 45.01916, "relative_strength": -2.6758, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.608722, "energy": 17.254884, "activity_lines": [ 72.793332, 70.344969, 71.922762, 72.721902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }