{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78b3d52a-cbfa-45c2-b463-82b5ce6a8b75", "symbol": "002022", "name": "Shanghai Kehua Bio-Engineering Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.767, "architecture_energy": 24.372, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.548, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.24, "rotation_up": 26.86, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 60.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.082667, 5.000182, 5.192762, 5.38 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.29, "trend_reference": 5.634, "distance_from_trend": -0.061058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.732885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214304, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.226813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166929, "excess_performance": -0.174329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214304, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056225, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067508, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.464809, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33024657, "relative_activity": 1.062009, "balance": 0.464809, "dry_up": 1.245647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076778, "annualized_volatility": 0.266254, "from_high_reference": -0.373964, "from_low_reference": 0.15 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.634, "fair_value_reference": 6.732885, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.021164, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.012321, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.424171, "worst_return": -0.204465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.034884, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.016434, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.2467, "worst_return": -0.217813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05461, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.097164, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.375347, "worst_return": -0.292994, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013559, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.951746, "energy": 49.958188, "activity_lines": [ 4.888667, 4.943091, 5.239905, 5.442086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.09, "volume": 31085301, "typical_volume": 31392477.95, "trend": 5.655667, "fair_value": 6.761474, "relative_strength": -15.97362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.582669, "energy": 35.58937, "activity_lines": [ 4.968667, 4.948182, 5.204714, 5.403591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.29, "volume": 33024657, "typical_volume": 31096405.15, "trend": 5.634, "fair_value": 6.732885, "relative_strength": -16.226813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.767115, "energy": 24.371741, "activity_lines": [ 5.082667, 5.000182, 5.192762, 5.38 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }