{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "78b3fbc1-e92f-488b-aa7b-36467d28de88",
    "symbol": "DB48",
    "name": "Xtrackers - LevDAX Daily Swap UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 66.999,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 80.951,
    "architecture_energy": 69.16,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.241,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.995,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.7,
        "rotation_up": 63.8,
        "upward_expansion": 85.2,
        "deceleration": 49.14,
        "rotation_down": 15.3,
        "downward_expansion": 14.2
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 312.149994,
    "trend_reference": 276.725,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.128015,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 220.173654,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417745,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -7.840686,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.095455,
    "excess_performance": -0.078791,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128015,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016275,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.417745,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.12394,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.078407,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090068,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095455,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": null,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": null,
      "balance": null,
      "dry_up": null,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.044863,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.389215,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001759,
      "from_low_reference": 0.406081
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 276.725,
      "fair_value_reference": 220.173654,
      "structural_low": 222.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.007364,
        "positive_rate": 0.53125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.53125,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0033,
        "regime_survival": 0.6875,
        "best_return": 0.225829,
        "worst_return": -0.203172,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.045627,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030644,
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "sufficient": false
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        "relative_strength": -16.847471,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.204298,
        "energy": 22.047308,
        "activity_lines": [
          269.833335,
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          266.975477,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 261.649994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 271.618336,
        "fair_value": 209.178397,
        "relative_strength": -18.518221,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.67319,
        "energy": 16.716875,
        "activity_lines": [
          267.26,
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          265.882858,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 282.950012,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 271.770003,
        "fair_value": 210.075128,
        "relative_strength": -13.279476,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -0.821664,
        "energy": 7.948561,
        "activity_lines": [
          271.753337,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 287.399994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 272.293336,
        "fair_value": 210.992564,
        "relative_strength": -13.797572,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.64618,
        "energy": 19.431791,
        "activity_lines": [
          277.513334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 278.850006,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 272.846669,
        "fair_value": 211.86391,
        "relative_strength": -14.917497,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.333328,
        "energy": 24.824444,
        "activity_lines": [
          279.046669,
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          269.00762,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 275.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 273.048336,
        "fair_value": 212.668013,
        "relative_strength": -17.920206,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 13.447977,
        "energy": 29.209086,
        "activity_lines": [
          278.676668,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 283.799988,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 274.116669,
        "fair_value": 213.574936,
        "relative_strength": -18.278979,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.337348,
        "energy": 38.283894,
        "activity_lines": [
          280.886664,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 274.299988,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 274.343335,
        "fair_value": 214.402115,
        "relative_strength": -18.928629,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 13.302813,
        "energy": 16.528284,
        "activity_lines": [
          278.453327,
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          271.112856,
          272.3
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 301.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 275.323335,
        "fair_value": 215.464423,
        "relative_strength": -12.681345,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 47.712002,
        "energy": 41.896075,
        "activity_lines": [
          285.496661,
          281.998179,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 284.100006,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 275.623335,
        "fair_value": 216.362372,
        "relative_strength": -15.961973,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 26.493583,
        "energy": 36.465322,
        "activity_lines": [
          285.999998,
          283.030908,
          275.416428,
          274.586021
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 278.200012,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 275.656668,
        "fair_value": 217.215449,
        "relative_strength": -15.547567,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.6409,
        "energy": 24.842082,
        "activity_lines": [
          284.18667,
          282.726364,
          276.234762,
          274.752259
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 283.549988,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 275.835001,
        "fair_value": 218.068974,
        "relative_strength": -14.575582,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 25.168004,
        "energy": 31.287349,
        "activity_lines": [
          283.943333,
          283.239999,
          277.658809,
          275.261505
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 295.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 276.276667,
        "fair_value": 219.060384,
        "relative_strength": -10.542976,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.811191,
        "energy": 38.253447,
        "activity_lines": [
          287.7,
          285.528181,
          280.09738,
          276.530215
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 312.149994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 276.725,
        "fair_value": 220.173654,
        "relative_strength": -7.840686,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.951197,
        "energy": 69.1603,
        "activity_lines": [
          295.593331,
          290.615452,
          283.926427,
          278.844623
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}