{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78b6fb58-04a0-49c9-84ed-4b6a045f5284", "symbol": "TCBK", "name": "TriCo Bancshares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.32, "architecture_energy": 77.111, "architecture_maturity": 37.983, "architecture_confidence": 79.859, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 74.26, "upward_expansion": 90.96, "deceleration": 46.48, "rotation_down": 9.98, "downward_expansion": 17.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.703333, 56.354727, 53.995017, 52.477231 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 57.27, "trend_reference": 50.916161, "distance_from_trend": 0.12479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.012366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396408, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.044358, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112697, "excess_performance": -0.074756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.396408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107058, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040444, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098412, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112697, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.694985, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1197831, "relative_activity": 1.042057, "balance": 1.694985, "dry_up": 2.674189, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049195, "annualized_volatility": 0.25803, "from_high_reference": -0.071949, "from_low_reference": 0.447915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.916161, "fair_value_reference": 41.012366, "structural_low": 45.050055, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.001021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007663, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.08315, "worst_return": -0.148834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014665, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044054, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.071307, "worst_return": -0.186505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107733, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.107687, "worst_return": -0.135042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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52.506679, 51.089809, 50.330625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.52, "volume": 7137729, "typical_volume": 1039132.6, "trend": 49.872742, "fair_value": 40.566634, "relative_strength": 15.311535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.871081, "energy": 90.246397, "activity_lines": [ 56.0, 54.117025, 52.108798, 51.042285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.12, "volume": 2604445, "typical_volume": 1119448.35, "trend": 50.223189, "fair_value": 40.721198, "relative_strength": 12.209618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.802207, "energy": 86.08132, "activity_lines": [ 57.106, 55.110475, 52.835237, 51.574366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.54, "volume": 1355773, "typical_volume": 1138173.9, "trend": 50.592406, "fair_value": 40.868667, "relative_strength": 10.123388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.813652, "energy": 81.802764, "activity_lines": [ 57.570667, 55.822759, 53.453088, 52.046418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.27, "volume": 1197831, "typical_volume": 1149486.5, "trend": 50.916161, "fair_value": 41.012366, "relative_strength": 4.044358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.319544, "energy": 77.110668, "activity_lines": [ 57.703333, 56.354727, 53.995017, 52.477231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }