{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "78b759e4-682d-4521-89c4-d9ecf9d789f3",
    "symbol": "SVML",
    "name": "Sovereign Metals Limited",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.832,
    "architecture_energy": 68.119,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.853,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.607,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.34,
        "rotation_up": 16.27,
        "upward_expansion": 15.29,
        "deceleration": 39.87,
        "rotation_down": 61.63,
        "downward_expansion": 86.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.273,
        0.283,
        0.307738,
        0.328555
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.28,
    "trend_reference": 0.3492,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.198167,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.319359,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123244,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -22.759739,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.253333,
    "excess_performance": -0.304569,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.198167,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013741,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123244,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.28339,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.227597,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.231798,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.253333,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.732614,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1377339,
      "relative_activity": 0.668025,
      "balance": 0.732614,
      "dry_up": 0.925688,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.123187,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.535037,
      "from_high_reference": -0.45098,
      "from_low_reference": 0.164241
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.3492,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.319359,
      "structural_low": 0.2555,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.069669,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.05225,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.213333,
        "worst_return": -0.106383,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.16129,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.108979,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.544402,
        "worst_return": 0.042553,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.042553,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010408,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.293436,
        "worst_return": -0.135484,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.247941,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.125424,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.382979,
        "worst_return": 0.112903,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.03662,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-02-07",
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        "return": 0.125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.15,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.061538,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.16129,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.24507,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.253333,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 2354869.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 2412368.05,
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        "fair_value": 0.319327,
        "relative_strength": -20.894984,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1754828,
        "typical_volume": 2204177.45,
        "trend": 0.351833,
        "fair_value": 0.319231,
        "relative_strength": -26.54273,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.796552,
        "energy": 78.770666,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.288,
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          0.343882
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 789997,
        "typical_volume": 2137749.05,
        "trend": 0.3507,
        "fair_value": 0.319167,
        "relative_strength": -28.243994,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.507278,
        "energy": 81.750815,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.276,
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          0.318957,
          0.337957
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.275,
        "volume": 3712200,
        "typical_volume": 2171600.35,
        "trend": 0.350033,
        "fair_value": 0.319199,
        "relative_strength": -24.477075,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.172263,
        "energy": 76.562037,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.273,
          0.286636,
          0.312729,
          0.333073
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.28,
        "volume": 1377339,
        "typical_volume": 2061808.3,
        "trend": 0.3492,
        "fair_value": 0.319359,
        "relative_strength": -22.759739,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.832016,
        "energy": 68.118687,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.273,
          0.283,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}