{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78b7c9e9-394e-4bf2-a005-03f743a74d9e", "symbol": "ACTU", "name": "Actuate Therapeutics, Inc. Common stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.055, "architecture_energy": 67.586, "architecture_maturity": 70.98, "architecture_confidence": 90.759, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.4, "rotation_up": 19.8, "upward_expansion": 13.29, "deceleration": 43.76, "rotation_down": 68.82, "downward_expansion": 91.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.173, 1.350364, 1.745048, 2.060688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.105, "trend_reference": 2.675167, "distance_from_trend": -0.586942, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.335481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.825585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -79.359345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.749433, "excess_performance": -0.936887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.586942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.825585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.793593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.749433, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.991823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1051709, "relative_activity": 0.959534, "balance": 0.991823, "dry_up": 1.962424, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.447275, "annualized_volatility": 1.123783, "from_high_reference": -0.880152, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.675167, "fair_value_reference": 6.335481, "structural_low": 1.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.157892, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.189836, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.134199, "worst_return": -0.430993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.423729, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.602493, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.423729, "worst_return": -0.423729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.732446, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-16", "close": 8.7, "volume": 242085, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-23", "close": 8.08, "volume": 131857, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.978307, "energy": 75.347236, "activity_lines": [ 1.235333, 1.442727, 1.837, 2.172817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.105, "volume": 1051709, "typical_volume": 1096062.05, "trend": 2.675167, "fair_value": 6.335481, "relative_strength": -79.359345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.054829, "energy": 67.585651, "activity_lines": [ 1.173, 1.350364, 1.745048, 2.060688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }