{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78b7cfaf-ca33-4bb5-a2fe-6d46d734a985", "symbol": "LFBE", "name": "Stone Ridge 2065 Longevity Income ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.363, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.491, "architecture_energy": 78.685, "architecture_maturity": 10.292, "architecture_confidence": 80.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.65, "rotation_up": 8.51, "upward_expansion": 18.21, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 80.82, "downward_expansion": 96.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 178.508286, 180.381065, 181.507804, 182.432832 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 178.3925, "trend_reference": 183.653336, "distance_from_trend": -0.028645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 182.32824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021586, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.894085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036039, "excess_performance": -0.161664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007076, "read": "Falling" 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176.606176, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014657, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 172.677222, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 175.381763, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", 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null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 180.851861, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 181.046154, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 125.1, "trend": 184.337377, "fair_value": 182.493511, "relative_strength": -10.104498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.994705, "energy": 32.198395, "activity_lines": [ 182.378431, 182.757802, 182.939354, 183.632077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.764304, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 121.1, "trend": 184.128255, "fair_value": 182.447472, "relative_strength": -10.448768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.224698, "energy": 67.1079, "activity_lines": [ 180.864683, 182.091751, 182.502533, 183.272524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 176.606176, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 105.75, "trend": 183.885644, "fair_value": 182.376237, "relative_strength": -12.118374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.078028, "energy": 83.312594, "activity_lines": [ 179.060037, 181.036171, 181.902445, 182.787229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.3925, "volume": 183, "typical_volume": 99.7, "trend": 183.653336, "fair_value": 182.32824, "relative_strength": -13.894085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.491444, "energy": 78.685376, "activity_lines": [ 178.508286, 180.381065, 181.507804, 182.432832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }