{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78bda163-467e-4c5f-a748-f151a6a8ab29", "symbol": "SDOS", "name": "ScandiDos AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.695, "architecture_energy": 33.539, "architecture_maturity": 48.978, "architecture_confidence": 56.273, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.03, "rotation_up": 25.31, "upward_expansion": 16.2, "deceleration": 64.94, "rotation_down": 37.46, "downward_expansion": 63.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.862333, 0.856455, 0.893562, 0.91637 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.89, "trend_reference": 0.9517, "distance_from_trend": -0.064831, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.48741, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401645, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.381788, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131707, "excess_performance": -0.193202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401645, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000953, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.430876, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 259533, "relative_activity": 2.037847, "balance": 2.430876, "dry_up": 0.963443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064391, "annualized_volatility": 0.334736, "from_high_reference": -0.364286, "from_low_reference": 0.126582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.9517, "fair_value_reference": 1.48741, "structural_low": 0.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.002695, "positive_rate": 0.488372, "directional_follow_through": 0.511628, "median_excess_return": -0.003247, "regime_survival": 0.813953, "best_return": 0.20362, "worst_return": -0.224924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.050926, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070028, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.314159, "worst_return": -0.173913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.14527, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.131337, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.017021, "worst_return": -0.283854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.267142, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.363654, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.131915, "worst_return": -0.388021, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060209, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062893, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.86, "volume": 117790, "typical_volume": 124531.1, "trend": 0.981867, "fair_value": 1.517506, "relative_strength": -26.036645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.063837, "energy": 68.633136, "activity_lines": [ 0.849333, 0.871, 0.913233, 0.93772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.865, "volume": 44065, "typical_volume": 125909.35, "trend": 0.972367, "fair_value": 1.507474, "relative_strength": -25.853632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.70898, "energy": 48.258709, "activity_lines": [ 0.855667, 0.864091, 0.906438, 0.930181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.83, "volume": 69415, "typical_volume": 124921.85, "trend": 0.9617, "fair_value": 1.497538, "relative_strength": -28.894968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.873314, "energy": 48.541212, "activity_lines": [ 0.848667, 0.853182, 0.896857, 0.920996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.89, "volume": 259533, "typical_volume": 127356.5, "trend": 0.9517, "fair_value": 1.48741, "relative_strength": -24.381788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.695085, "energy": 33.538654, "activity_lines": [ 0.862333, 0.856455, 0.893562, 0.91637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }