{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78c34900-ad71-4035-aeb4-5b4bb18090cc", "symbol": "NNGF", "name": "National Grid plc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.323, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.235, "architecture_energy": 25.209, "architecture_maturity": 8.353, "architecture_confidence": 73.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.69, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 14.96, "deceleration": 37.47, "rotation_down": 41.17, "downward_expansion": 67.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.233, 14.314636, 14.319584, 14.406991 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.03, "trend_reference": 14.455096, "distance_from_trend": -0.029408, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.651836, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204102, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.497488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03748, "excess_performance": -0.10212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029408, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034692, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204102, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03748, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.296331, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206759, "relative_activity": 0.461959, "balance": 1.296331, "dry_up": 0.926933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045665, "annualized_volatility": 0.310207, "from_high_reference": -0.12015, "from_low_reference": 0.251728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.455096, "fair_value_reference": 11.651836, "structural_low": 13.407279, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.03252, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.020768, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": -0.160643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064735, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.011012, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18581, "worst_return": -0.186813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059627, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038452, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201672, 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.744711, "energy": 9.812072, "activity_lines": [ 14.347333, 14.264314, 14.380259, 14.405726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.44, "volume": 213392, "typical_volume": 378691.0, "trend": 14.283834, "fair_value": 11.531728, "relative_strength": 4.178933, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.608772, "energy": 12.55623, "activity_lines": [ 14.404667, 14.293957, 14.369745, 14.419926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.785, "volume": 183303, "typical_volume": 384832.75, "trend": 14.349486, "fair_value": 11.562275, "relative_strength": 7.271475, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.642083, "energy": 23.185234, "activity_lines": [ 14.557667, 14.39441, 14.395533, 14.452259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.525, "volume": 449375, "typical_volume": 403997.85, "trend": 14.409733, "fair_value": 11.592192, "relative_strength": 3.942974, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.829711, "energy": 19.004847, "activity_lines": [ 14.578667, 14.44255, 14.399758, 14.463582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.94, "volume": 820034, "typical_volume": 442279.1, "trend": 14.437436, "fair_value": 11.621466, "relative_strength": -2.402701, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.08263, "energy": 12.330745, "activity_lines": [ 14.369667, 14.364182, 14.351308, 14.433277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.03, "volume": 206759, "typical_volume": 447570.2, "trend": 14.455096, "fair_value": 11.651836, "relative_strength": -4.497488, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.234513, "energy": 25.209011, "activity_lines": [ 14.233, 14.314636, 14.319584, 14.406991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }