{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78c7b21c-25d3-48fc-8eed-b8d47ea011c4", "symbol": "688387", "name": "CICT Mobile Communication Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.996, "architecture_energy": 48.767, "architecture_maturity": 16.637, "architecture_confidence": 51.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.67, "rotation_up": 13.54, "upward_expansion": 9.96, "deceleration": 42.32, "rotation_down": 69.34, "downward_expansion": 76.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.774667, 15.709818, 16.760762, 16.798667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.73, "trend_reference": 16.989, "distance_from_trend": -0.132968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.39609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.754388, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.527992, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202058, "excess_performance": -0.158855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.754388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.098104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.15528, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.859001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202058, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 308427979, "relative_activity": 0.944676, "balance": 0.650623, "dry_up": 1.031193, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.241736, "annualized_volatility": 1.023005, "from_high_reference": -0.3973, "from_low_reference": 1.597884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.989, "fair_value_reference": 8.39609, "structural_low": 11.22, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024828, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038556, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.107774, "worst_return": -0.256772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056604, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240283, "worst_return": -0.128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069881, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043972, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.174067, "worst_return": -0.034305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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15.306667, "fair_value": 8.017564, "relative_strength": 49.840288, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.166603, "energy": 19.66662, "activity_lines": [ 16.926666, 17.760181, 17.221571, 16.778989 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 19.51, "volume": 120588082, "typical_volume": 363095568.05, "trend": 15.741, "fair_value": 8.093333, "relative_strength": 64.014859, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.079098, "energy": 18.051919, "activity_lines": [ 17.742666, 18.017272, 17.474238, 17.050172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.15, "volume": 108020774, "typical_volume": 336470575.15, "trend": 16.213333, "fair_value": 8.178333, "relative_strength": 73.031648, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.176427, "energy": 35.607772, "activity_lines": [ 19.044666, 18.535818, 17.878095, 17.39914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.280001, "volume": 526249912, "typical_volume": 342145257.55, "trend": 16.71, "fair_value": 8.270513, "relative_strength": 79.887467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.511427, "energy": 60.505705, "activity_lines": [ 20.389334, 19.184364, 18.367, 17.790538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.17, "volume": 475534139, "typical_volume": 343214144.4, "trend": 16.867667, "fair_value": 8.30141, "relative_strength": 11.58183, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.169087, "energy": 15.891593, "activity_lines": [ 18.344, 18.127455, 17.953048, 17.56215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.33, "volume": 317841110, "typical_volume": 337338012.3, "trend": 16.938333, "fair_value": 8.327885, "relative_strength": 2.078444, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.77352, "energy": 17.109312, "activity_lines": [ 16.198667, 17.074182, 17.479143, 17.269398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.84, "volume": 244896257, "typical_volume": 331261291.5, "trend": 16.928, "fair_value": 8.34891, "relative_strength": -3.301821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.429954, "energy": 42.409945, "activity_lines": [ 14.249333, 16.067818, 16.975762, 16.940473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.73, "volume": 308427979, "typical_volume": 326490763.8, "trend": 16.989, "fair_value": 8.39609, "relative_strength": 15.527992, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.995954, "energy": 48.766778, "activity_lines": [ 13.774667, 15.709818, 16.760762, 16.798667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }