{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78c976e1-4a9f-4ade-94fa-acd8376deb84", "symbol": "TUA", "name": "SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS SHORT TERM TREASURY FUTURES STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 85.457, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.369, "architecture_energy": 43.791, "architecture_maturity": 53.66, "architecture_confidence": 90.973, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 23.37, "upward_expansion": 6.05, "deceleration": 54.52, "rotation_down": 51.93, "downward_expansion": 79.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.272826, 20.316613, 20.436482, 20.61288 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.3915, "trend_reference": 20.884098, "distance_from_trend": -0.023587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.691374, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.435566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059141, "excess_performance": -0.184766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023587, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059141, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.281723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 958774, "relative_activity": 0.431203, "balance": 1.281723, "dry_up": 1.13648, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015045, "annualized_volatility": 0.075309, "from_high_reference": -0.069579, "from_low_reference": 0.020058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.884098, "fair_value_reference": 20.691374, 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"fair_value": 20.68648, "relative_strength": -14.270671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.272571, "energy": 48.91708, "activity_lines": [ 20.395996, 20.425999, 20.595685, 20.802442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.369593, "volume": 3272263, "typical_volume": 2281969.5, "trend": 21.026867, "fair_value": 20.687981, "relative_strength": -12.251583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.612022, "energy": 42.531699, "activity_lines": [ 20.380278, 20.407594, 20.556078, 20.757203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.080309, "volume": 1417413, "typical_volume": 2239496.3, "trend": 20.973113, "fair_value": 20.688539, "relative_strength": -12.655884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.212662, "energy": 52.82094, "activity_lines": [ 20.277488, 20.344574, 20.496121, 20.696135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.215, "volume": 4459356, "typical_volume": 2386784.8, "trend": 20.923848, "fair_value": 20.688764, "relative_strength": -12.60203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.107428, "energy": 49.428956, "activity_lines": [ 20.235599, 20.31277, 20.455678, 20.647225 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.3915, "volume": 958774, "typical_volume": 2223488.75, "trend": 20.884098, "fair_value": 20.691374, "relative_strength": -14.435566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.369209, "energy": 43.791096, "activity_lines": [ 20.272826, 20.316613, 20.436482, 20.61288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }