{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78ca3fe6-c91c-43b9-87d1-d703a532906f", "symbol": "002468", "name": "STO Express Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.038, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.225, "architecture_energy": 29.254, "architecture_maturity": 10.171, "architecture_confidence": 60.714, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.34, "rotation_up": 25.57, "upward_expansion": 16.49, "deceleration": 43.86, "rotation_down": 51.57, "downward_expansion": 48.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.178, 14.36346, 14.704451, 14.734358 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.58, "trend_reference": 14.548873, "distance_from_trend": 0.002139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.664376, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.530805, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133748, "excess_performance": 0.126348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005241, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24996, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016216, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133096492, "relative_activity": 1.19894, "balance": 0.503942, "dry_up": 1.228838, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095671, "annualized_volatility": 0.465012, "from_high_reference": -0.273543, "from_low_reference": 0.1664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.548873, "fair_value_reference": 11.664376, "structural_low": 12.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.054122, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.042873, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.47541, "worst_return": -0.097772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.059091, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461962, "worst_return": -0.152764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087918, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.061545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303391, "worst_return": -0.124623, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.259874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086705, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061806, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", 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15.181333, 14.852522, 15.138902, 14.892605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.82, "volume": 182772584, "typical_volume": 113920846.65, "trend": 14.553206, "fair_value": 11.604998, "relative_strength": -10.088026, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.367741, "energy": 12.077663, "activity_lines": [ 14.887333, 14.655534, 15.019301, 14.844054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.19, "volume": 131109909, "typical_volume": 112538502.25, "trend": 14.506873, "fair_value": 11.620321, "relative_strength": -14.245399, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.227643, "energy": 12.034573, "activity_lines": [ 14.400667, 14.386606, 14.839605, 14.756105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.1, "volume": 98683109, "typical_volume": 110289214.5, "trend": 14.510206, "fair_value": 11.641351, "relative_strength": -6.496633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.364629, "energy": 15.149742, "activity_lines": [ 14.223333, 14.323651, 14.749099, 14.729855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.58, "volume": 133096492, "typical_volume": 111011812.05, "trend": 14.548873, "fair_value": 11.664376, "relative_strength": -7.530805, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.225245, "energy": 29.254466, "activity_lines": [ 14.178, 14.36346, 14.704451, 14.734358 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }