{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78d0c5cf-35df-46f2-b0dd-016ffd9996b5", "symbol": "XSG", "name": "Xeros Technology Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.44, "architecture_energy": 43.646, "architecture_maturity": 28.855, "architecture_confidence": 69.287, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.3, "rotation_up": 20.83, "upward_expansion": 18.63, "deceleration": 42.19, "rotation_down": 60.33, "downward_expansion": 55.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013683, 0.014305, 0.014868, 0.014723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.01275, "trend_reference": 0.014752, "distance_from_trend": -0.135691, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016114, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.814517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190476, "excess_performance": -0.241711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135691, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085735, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.021624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3581437, "relative_activity": 0.567465, "balance": 0.021624, "dry_up": 0.579823, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168507, "annualized_volatility": 0.592946, "from_high_reference": -0.58871, "from_low_reference": 0.275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014752, "fair_value_reference": 0.016114, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.037106, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.055302, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.232143, "worst_return": -0.194805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.201144, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.218807, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.342857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.246753, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.278327, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.178571, "worst_return": -0.491379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157143, 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"typical_volume": 7305043.6, "trend": 0.015227, "fair_value": 0.016555, "relative_strength": -7.705634, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.5953, "energy": 2.751041, "activity_lines": [ 0.01535, 0.015445, 0.015205, 0.015049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.015, "volume": 559658, "typical_volume": 7207506.1, "trend": 0.015143, "fair_value": 0.016452, "relative_strength": -9.822768, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.298456, "energy": 4.16007, "activity_lines": [ 0.015333, 0.015277, 0.015235, 0.015034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01375, "volume": 4280641, "typical_volume": 6367016.25, "trend": 0.015018, "fair_value": 0.016342, "relative_strength": -18.16103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.803495, "energy": 9.618403, "activity_lines": [ 0.01485, 0.014945, 0.015143, 0.014944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01375, "volume": 6216002, "typical_volume": 6206898.95, "trend": 0.014918, "fair_value": 0.016231, "relative_strength": -18.931621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.251158, "energy": 21.580462, "activity_lines": [ 0.014417, 0.014691, 0.015055, 0.014862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01275, "volume": 3581437, "typical_volume": 6311295.9, "trend": 0.014752, "fair_value": 0.016114, "relative_strength": -24.814517, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.439764, "energy": 43.646357, "activity_lines": [ 0.013683, 0.014305, 0.014868, 0.014723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }