{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78d2b086-882a-479b-91a8-aea63a901e0a", "symbol": "BNOV", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - November", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.389, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.856, "architecture_energy": 65.202, "architecture_maturity": 42.374, "architecture_confidence": 81.527, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.08, "rotation_up": 63.85, "upward_expansion": 86.08, "deceleration": 52.87, "rotation_down": 24.2, "downward_expansion": 10.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.283593, 47.985969, 47.54895, 46.816571 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.12, "trend_reference": 45.992543, "distance_from_trend": 0.067999, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.873315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231902, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.678929, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092527, "excess_performance": -0.033098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067999, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02655, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014715, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.883912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35926, "relative_activity": 0.360827, "balance": 4.883912, "dry_up": 0.440528, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016634, "annualized_volatility": 0.105061, "from_high_reference": -0.000407, "from_low_reference": 0.167994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.992543, "fair_value_reference": 39.873315, "structural_low": 42.055, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.007582, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.002946, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.040667, "worst_return": -0.045496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.031384, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.006244, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.096623, "worst_return": -0.101232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.054131, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.02127, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.085444, "worst_return": -0.098019, "sufficient": true }, { 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47.414069, 46.57301, 46.003773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.24, "volume": 41102, "typical_volume": 99840.4, "trend": 45.526723, "fair_value": 39.52199, "relative_strength": -2.446119, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.483019, "energy": 58.425703, "activity_lines": [ 47.6955, 47.583445, 46.809784, 46.187426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.8, "volume": 36008, "typical_volume": 99835.3, "trend": 45.642703, "fair_value": 39.606717, "relative_strength": -1.736255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.112322, "energy": 54.410658, "activity_lines": [ 47.766, 47.640529, 46.988177, 46.334089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.5513, "volume": 49840, "typical_volume": 99064.45, "trend": 45.735247, "fair_value": 39.687804, "relative_strength": -1.599921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.266778, "energy": 54.241412, "activity_lines": [ 47.7271, 47.639667, 47.12817, 46.457224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.04, "volume": 53672, "typical_volume": 98960.55, "trend": 45.854877, "fair_value": 39.776784, "relative_strength": -1.5751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.066758, "energy": 55.106377, "activity_lines": [ 47.86768, 47.72, 47.297774, 46.605918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.12, "volume": 35926, "typical_volume": 99565.85, "trend": 45.992543, "fair_value": 39.873315, "relative_strength": -2.678929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.856373, "energy": 65.2016, "activity_lines": [ 48.283593, 47.985969, 47.54895, 46.816571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }