{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78e06351-b457-470f-8ba2-3fec53ccf197", "symbol": "601111", "name": "Air China Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.278, "architecture_energy": 50.475, "architecture_maturity": 74.382, "architecture_confidence": 92.383, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 26.2, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 59.45, "rotation_down": 51.92, "downward_expansion": 81.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.060667, 6.094909, 6.320619, 6.591441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.07, "trend_reference": 7.082333, "distance_from_trend": -0.142938, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.547115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.72289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.269555, "excess_performance": -0.226351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142938, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09978, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.195719, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269555, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372553679, "relative_activity": 1.006468, "balance": 0.552606, "dry_up": 1.02665, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060702, "annualized_volatility": 0.313044, "from_high_reference": -0.357672, "from_low_reference": 0.059337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.082333, "fair_value_reference": 7.547115, "structural_low": 5.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.010883, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.178082, "worst_return": -0.134845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02166, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.023941, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.386606, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037249, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.059171, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.579909, "worst_return": -0.102041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 6.0, "volume": 427610285, "typical_volume": 412328002.35, "trend": 7.459333, "fair_value": 7.611667, "relative_strength": -22.433593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.40535, "energy": 72.080574, "activity_lines": [ 6.150667, 6.319273, 6.560476, 6.92572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.84, "volume": 332635000, "typical_volume": 409639406.55, "trend": 7.375, "fair_value": 7.596282, "relative_strength": -19.382251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.182353, "energy": 73.87654, "activity_lines": [ 6.032, 6.199818, 6.467762, 6.821247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.96, "volume": 417405087, "typical_volume": 398095496.15, "trend": 7.274667, "fair_value": 7.578269, "relative_strength": -18.371986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.281806, "energy": 67.136345, "activity_lines": [ 5.982, 6.128545, 6.398714, 6.729957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.25, "volume": 397501990, "typical_volume": 381067915.8, "trend": 7.192333, "fair_value": 7.564167, "relative_strength": -14.3802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.447929, "energy": 53.894712, "activity_lines": [ 6.047333, 6.124182, 6.365524, 6.663849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.07, "volume": 372553679, "typical_volume": 370159364.4, "trend": 7.082333, "fair_value": 7.547115, "relative_strength": -18.72289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.27814, "energy": 50.474574, "activity_lines": [ 6.060667, 6.094909, 6.320619, 6.591441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }