{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78e069ad-2543-45dd-83f2-ef8c9f2308ae", "symbol": "688096", "name": "Jiangsu Jingyuan Environmental Protection Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.738, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.36, "architecture_energy": 40.069, "architecture_maturity": 13.296, "architecture_confidence": 69.051, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.03, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 19.55, "deceleration": 56.94, "rotation_down": 69.33, "downward_expansion": 49.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.299333, 9.503091, 10.254381, 10.059806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.65, "trend_reference": 9.787333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116205, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.479965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156422, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.030808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012557, "excess_performance": 0.030647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.763979, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37909173, "relative_activity": 0.72941, "balance": 1.763979, "dry_up": 0.977129, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.252912, "annualized_volatility": 0.855544, "from_high_reference": -0.410763, "from_low_reference": 0.404221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.787333, "fair_value_reference": 7.479965, "structural_low": 6.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.147996, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.146514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.147996, "worst_return": -0.147996, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.206578, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.206578, "worst_return": -0.206578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.027749, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.115868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.027749, "worst_return": -0.027749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.797052, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13242, 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[ 10.402667, 11.422909, 10.906476, 10.420043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.2, "volume": 51992357, "typical_volume": 53563858.85, "trend": 9.755333, "fair_value": 7.462252, "relative_strength": -19.343243, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.974039, "energy": 38.054901, "activity_lines": [ 9.022, 10.568545, 10.612286, 10.254495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.85, "volume": 61229894, "typical_volume": 52913669.6, "trend": 9.762333, "fair_value": 7.46868, "relative_strength": -11.756172, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.174553, "energy": 37.640874, "activity_lines": [ 8.330667, 9.919091, 10.392952, 10.13157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.65, "volume": 37909173, "typical_volume": 51972384.65, "trend": 9.787333, "fair_value": 7.479965, "relative_strength": -5.030808, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.360379, "energy": 40.068564, "activity_lines": [ 8.299333, 9.503091, 10.254381, 10.059806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }