{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78e380c9-f1e2-4ffa-aad1-f65796fc7328", "symbol": "SMP", "name": "Standard Motor Products Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.488, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.911, "architecture_energy": 15.233, "architecture_maturity": 36.238, "architecture_confidence": 69.792, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.24, "rotation_up": 34.97, "upward_expansion": 40.13, "deceleration": 43.12, "rotation_down": 34.35, "downward_expansion": 14.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.158667, 38.989273, 38.784492, 38.582928 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.76, "trend_reference": 38.709383, "distance_from_trend": 0.052975, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.88468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239483, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.359029, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061195, "excess_performance": -0.18682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052975, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017749, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239483, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.73993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 931277, "relative_activity": 1.496877, "balance": 2.73993, "dry_up": 1.093069, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068946, "annualized_volatility": 0.303133, "from_high_reference": -0.09936, "from_low_reference": 0.199986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.709383, "fair_value_reference": 32.88468, "structural_low": 33.967051, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007969, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006746, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.142897, "worst_return": -0.169149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030688, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003536, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137368, "worst_return": -0.250355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067743, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023187, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266403, "worst_return": -0.185863, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.991851, "energy": 5.949948, "activity_lines": [ 38.612, 38.800597, 38.336028, 38.444776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.59, "volume": 605465, "typical_volume": 631714.5, "trend": 38.491544, "fair_value": 32.783212, "relative_strength": -6.760151, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.256434, "energy": 5.635484, "activity_lines": [ 38.486, 38.758727, 38.406818, 38.453506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.67, "volume": 521665, "typical_volume": 621829.2, "trend": 38.551727, "fair_value": 32.814203, "relative_strength": -6.086822, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.700345, "energy": 6.972441, "activity_lines": [ 38.440667, 38.757818, 38.488746, 38.465019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.23, "volume": 661788, "typical_volume": 625043.0, "trend": 38.610688, "fair_value": 32.837865, "relative_strength": -8.265909, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.105567, "energy": 6.583913, "activity_lines": [ 38.298, 38.646545, 38.521243, 38.444262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.76, "volume": 931277, "typical_volume": 622146.5, "trend": 38.709383, "fair_value": 32.88468, "relative_strength": -5.359029, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.91121, "energy": 15.232917, "activity_lines": [ 39.158667, 38.989273, 38.784492, 38.582928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }