{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78e97669-26c7-4d16-9d8a-dd82abdd39a9", "symbol": "OCG", "name": "Outcrop Silver & Gold Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.767, "architecture_energy": 24.355, "architecture_maturity": 58.119, "architecture_confidence": 64.256, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.87, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 16.63, "deceleration": 62.07, "rotation_down": 37.48, "downward_expansion": 64.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.295333, 0.291455, 0.30481, 0.320387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.34, "trend_reference": 0.358333, "distance_from_trend": -0.051163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.265962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.740793, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244444, "excess_performance": -0.364866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08821, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27838, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161739, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.537386, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1262100, "relative_activity": 0.553607, "balance": 0.537386, "dry_up": 0.553772, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122172, "annualized_volatility": 0.911535, "from_high_reference": -0.476923, "from_low_reference": 0.416667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.358333, "fair_value_reference": 0.265962, "structural_low": 0.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.085139, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.031273, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.079412, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.084279, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.642857, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.125, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.090727, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, "active": 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"energy": 49.385124, "activity_lines": [ 0.278667, 0.288364, 0.30619, 0.328473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 745000, "typical_volume": 2499745.0, "trend": 0.364333, "fair_value": 0.264936, "relative_strength": -31.84298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.458444, "energy": 48.745347, "activity_lines": [ 0.274667, 0.282909, 0.302, 0.321957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 1262100, "typical_volume": 2279775.0, "trend": 0.358333, "fair_value": 0.265962, "relative_strength": -16.740793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.76725, "energy": 24.354735, "activity_lines": [ 0.295333, 0.291455, 0.30481, 0.320387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }