{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78f15db2-3dab-404c-89e8-303c968ee909", "symbol": "TAS", "name": "Tasman Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.959, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.866, "architecture_energy": 62.979, "architecture_maturity": 27.849, "architecture_confidence": 80.011, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.63, "rotation_up": 9.36, "upward_expansion": 13.43, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 71.49, "downward_expansion": 89.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0414, 0.045618, 0.049114, 0.049895 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.039, "trend_reference": 0.0502, "distance_from_trend": -0.223108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.028436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.949962, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.548721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.79259, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.363807, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 911111, "relative_activity": 0.378228, "balance": 0.363807, "dry_up": 1.585554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.260355, "annualized_volatility": 1.392808, "from_high_reference": -0.535714, "from_low_reference": 2.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0502, "fair_value_reference": 0.028436, "structural_low": 0.036, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.055553, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.079599, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.6875, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.225, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.219941, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.157895, "worst_return": -0.444447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.414286, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.470278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.947368, "worst_return": -0.606246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.30303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.727273, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.052043, 0.051603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.044, "volume": 2032953, "typical_volume": 2369911.75, "trend": 0.04925, "fair_value": 0.028391, "relative_strength": 19.55857, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.632286, "energy": 22.483877, "activity_lines": [ 0.046933, 0.050836, 0.051333, 0.051316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.038, "volume": 6032989, "typical_volume": 2523732.1, "trend": 0.049783, "fair_value": 0.02841, "relative_strength": -0.240997, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.131139, "energy": 48.851217, "activity_lines": [ 0.0436, 0.048109, 0.050133, 0.05059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.039, "volume": 911111, "typical_volume": 2408894.15, "trend": 0.0502, "fair_value": 0.028436, "relative_strength": -1.949962, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.8663, "energy": 62.978897, "activity_lines": [ 0.0414, 0.045618, 0.049114, 0.049895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }