{ "ticker": { "uuid": "78fa6637-aca9-4fce-9c75-fefab90854de", "symbol": "XLKQ", "name": "Invesco Technology S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.193, "architecture_energy": 37.815, "architecture_maturity": 67.644, "architecture_confidence": 94.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.27, "rotation_up": 37.12, "upward_expansion": 64.85, "deceleration": 94.29, "rotation_down": 28.82, "downward_expansion": 14.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 76204.666667, 76195.272727, 75315.952381, 72458.27957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 79440.0, "trend_reference": 68893.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.15309, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53309.967949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.490153, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.407201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.304005, "excess_performance": 0.25277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15309, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.490153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027197, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104072, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.304005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.045066, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16139, "relative_activity": 1.970309, "balance": 2.045066, "dry_up": 1.258134, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049623, "annualized_volatility": 0.245044, "from_high_reference": -0.007744, "from_low_reference": 0.690213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68893.166667, "fair_value_reference": 53309.967949, "structural_low": 56990.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.022426, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.041374, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.109814, "worst_return": -0.13191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.090867, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.035945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148904, "worst_return": -0.107775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.184468, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273204, "worst_return": 0.044911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096318, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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43.606999, "energy": 33.034728, "activity_lines": [ 75499.333333, 76221.454545, 74331.0, 71392.451613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73520.0, "volume": 13226, "typical_volume": 7833.1, "trend": 68380.166667, "fair_value": 53013.25, "relative_strength": 2.718358, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.951998, "energy": 24.576358, "activity_lines": [ 74802.0, 75643.818182, 74571.690476, 71744.741935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79440.0, "volume": 16139, "typical_volume": 8191.1, "trend": 68893.166667, "fair_value": 53309.967949, "relative_strength": 10.407201, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.192817, "energy": 37.815151, "activity_lines": [ 76204.666667, 76195.272727, 75315.952381, 72458.27957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }