{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7904f64c-0430-4bf9-9db5-174b948c6a5c", "symbol": "PIC", "name": "Perpetual Equity Investment Company Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.96, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.696, "architecture_energy": 5.913, "architecture_maturity": 8.125, "architecture_confidence": 70.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.44, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 26.66, "deceleration": 40.8, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 48.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.178333, 1.173909, 1.1725, 1.177376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.19, "trend_reference": 1.188535, "distance_from_trend": 0.001232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.101336, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.178019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012048, "excess_performance": -0.075754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012098, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012048, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.066966, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1122049, "relative_activity": 0.878004, "balance": 1.066966, "dry_up": 1.149795, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026826, "annualized_volatility": 0.12116, "from_high_reference": -0.053846, "from_low_reference": 0.067265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.188535, "fair_value_reference": 1.101336, "structural_low": 1.115, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012427, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.003183, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.065041, "worst_return": -0.058503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.021747, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.003253, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.066406, "worst_return": -0.012658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017146, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015338, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.077858, "worst_return": -0.062735, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078707, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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1115086, "typical_volume": 1414066.8, "trend": 1.191481, "fair_value": 1.09832, "relative_strength": -2.103992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.646662, "energy": 20.259847, "activity_lines": [ 1.170667, 1.170818, 1.172164, 1.18005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.15, "volume": 2192801, "typical_volume": 1389237.95, "trend": 1.190309, "fair_value": 1.099207, "relative_strength": -3.415858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.619268, "energy": 28.585848, "activity_lines": [ 1.164333, 1.167, 1.169571, 1.177374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.19, "volume": 1447606, "typical_volume": 1301131.5, "trend": 1.189664, "fair_value": 1.100298, "relative_strength": -2.257345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.002305, "energy": 9.814987, "activity_lines": [ 1.172, 1.170636, 1.171048, 1.177354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.19, "volume": 1122049, "typical_volume": 1277954.6, "trend": 1.188535, "fair_value": 1.101336, "relative_strength": -5.178019, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.696409, "energy": 5.913391, "activity_lines": [ 1.178333, 1.173909, 1.1725, 1.177376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }